Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

League: NFL | Date: 2025-10-26 01:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 11:26 AM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago Bears / Bet Type = Spread / +2.5 at -102 / 68% / Simulation indicates Bears cover with 65% win probability amid Ravens’ QB injury, aligning with line movement favoring underdog despite public lean on home team.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Bet Type = Total / 45 at -108 / 55% / Ravens’ defense ranks last in points allowed while Bears’ offense shows recent efficiency gains; average simulated total of 45.14 edges over, supported by matchup pace.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bears / Bet Type = Moneyline / +124 / 66% / Bears’ true win probability exceeds implied odds by 10% per simulation, driven by Jackson’s absence and Ravens’ 0-4 ATS as home favorites.]

🏈 Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears on 2025-10-26

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Baltimore Ravens 62% / Chicago Bears 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Baltimore Ravens 45% / Chicago Bears 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Ravens -6.5; shifted to -2.5 after Lamar Jackson ruled out, indicating sharp action on Bears despite public holding on favorite—total dipped from 47 to 45 on defensive adjustments.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Bears spread; simulation win probability (65.78%) outperforms implied odds (59%), with injury context amplifying value against overvalued Ravens home line.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baltimore Ravens | 30.87% |
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 65.78% |
| Spread Cover % for Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) | 27.17% |
| Over/Under Probability (44.5) | Over: 52.09% / Under: 47.91% |
| Average Total Points | 45.14 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Ravens – Bears) | [-23.0, 15.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Caleb Williams / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -110 / 72% / Bears QB averages 268 yards last 4 games with rising CPOE (45%); Ravens secondary allows 280+ to QBs without elite pressure, favoring over in high-upside matchup.

Player Prop #2: D’Andre Swift / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 / -115 / 68% / Swift hits 80+ in 3 of last 5 with 5.4 YPC; Ravens run D weakest in league (5.2 YPC allowed), supporting over via Bears’ balanced attack and Henry’s reduced role sans Jackson.

Player Prop #3: Zay Flowers / Under Receiving Yards / 58.5 / -105 / 70% / Flowers dips below 60 in 4 of 6 without Jackson (avg 42); Bears CBs limit WR1s to 55 yards recently, with Huntley’s low-volume passing tilting under on efficiency metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment clings to Ravens at 62% despite Jackson’s absence, creating divergence with money (55% Bears) and reverse line movement signaling sharp resistance. Following the Bears aligns with math and simulation edges, as Ravens’ offense craters without their MVP (EPA drops 1.2 per play). Game projects moderate scoring with Bears’ improving D (top-10 EPA allowed) capping Ravens, but offensive trends lean slight over on total.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Chicago Bears — simulation and sharp indicators confirm 65%+ probability, optimal for spread or ML with positive EV from injury-driven value.

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