Pittsburgh Steelers vs 
Green Bay Packers
League: NFL | Date: 2025-10-26 08:20 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 05:00 PM EDT
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 [Pittsburgh Steelers / Bet Type = Spread +3 / Odds = -118 / Confidence % = 58% / Short reasoning]
Simulation shows Steelers covering at 57.7%, exceeding the implied probability of 54.1% from odds, supported by reverse line movement hints and Pittsburgh’s rest advantage despite public lean.
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Bet Type = Total 45.5 / Odds = -102 / Confidence % = 52% / Short reasoning]
Offenses average 22.8 points combined recently, with Steelers defense allowing 18.2 per game and Packers facing tough red-zone coverage; simulation under probability at 51.2% edges the implied 50.5%.
💰 Best Bet #3 [Green Bay Packers / Bet Type = Moneyline / Odds = -155 / Confidence % = 61% / Short reasoning]
Packers win probability at 60.2% closely aligns with implied 60.8%, bolstered by superior EPA per play (+0.12) and third-down efficiency against a Steelers unit vulnerable to explosive plays.
🏈 Matchup: Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers on 2025-10-26
Game Times
ET: 8:20 PM
CT: 7:20 PM
MT: 6:20 PM
PT: 5:20 PM
AKT: 4:20 PM
HST: 2:20 PM
💸 Public Bets
Packers 68% / Steelers 32%
💰 Money Distribution
Packers 72% / Steelers 28%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Opened at Packers -2.5; moved to -3 amid heavy public and money on Green Bay, indicating no strong sharp resistance but potential overreaction to Packers’ recent form.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% EV on Steelers +3, driven by simulation cover rate surpassing implied odds and contextual factors like Pittsburgh’s +5 turnover margin and home underdog trends under Tomlin (6-2 ATS last 8).
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Green Bay Packers | 60.2% |
| Win % for Pittsburgh Steelers | 36.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Green Bay Packers (-3) | 42.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) | 57.7% |
| Over 45.5 Probability | 48.8% |
| Under 45.5 Probability | 51.2% |
| Average Total Points | 45.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Packers Margin | [-18.2, 26.4] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Aaron Rodgers / Prop Type = Over 225.5 Passing Yards / Line = 225.5 / Odds = -110 / Confidence % = 62% / Short reasoning including offensive/defensive data supporting Over or Under
Rodgers averages 248 yards per game with Steelers, facing a Packers secondary allowing 7.2 yards per attempt and ranking 22nd in pass defense EPA; his quick-release style (2.58s time to throw) exploits blitz-heavy schemes.
Player Prop #2: Josh Jacobs / Prop Type = Under 75.5 Rushing Yards / Line = 75.5 / Odds = -115 / Confidence % = 59% / Short reasoning including offensive/defensive data supporting Over or Under
Packers OL shuffled with injuries, while Steelers rush defense tops NFL at 3.8 yards per carry allowed; Jacobs hits under in 6 of 8 road games, with Pittsburgh’s 22 sacks generating negative plays.
Player Prop #3: George Pickens / Prop Type = Over 50.5 Receiving Yards / Line = 50.5 / Odds = -105 / Confidence % = 57% / Short reasoning including offensive/defensive data supporting Over or Under
Pickens averages 62 yards versus zone coverage like Green Bay’s (28th in opponent air yards), with Rodgers targeting him 8.4 times per game; Packers allow 68 receiving yards to WR1s in matchups.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Packers across markets, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward Green Bay, but simulation metrics reveal value in fading due to Pittsburgh’s superior rest (10 days vs. 7), turnover edge, and home underdog ATS success. Sharp action appears limited, with no clear RLM, yet EV calculations confirm an edge on the Steelers side without invalidating Packers’ outright win probability. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, as combined offenses manage 21.4 points against top-10 defenses, factoring mild Pittsburgh weather (55°F, light wind) and injury impacts on key linemen.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Pittsburgh Steelers +3 — simulation and contextual edges outweigh public alignment for the highest probability cover.
Highlights unavailable for future events.