NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning vs 
Vegas Golden Knights
League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-26 05:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 05:05 PM EDT
Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 [Vegas Golden Knights / Spread +1.5 / -205 / 68% / Simulation indicates 67.5% cover probability, supported by Vegas’s strong road form (5-1-2) against Tampa’s early struggles (2-4-2), with line movement showing sharp action on the underdog despite public favoritism toward the home team.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total 6.5 / -125 / 52% / Both teams rank mid-pack in goals per game (Tampa 2.8 scored/3.2 allowed, Vegas 3.1 scored/2.7 allowed), recent trends favor low-scoring affairs with strong goalie matchups, and simulation projects average of 6.50 goals with 51.9% under probability.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -135 / 55% / Home-ice edge and simulation win probability of 55.2% align with market consensus, though EV is marginal; public and sharp money show slight convergence on Tampa amid Vegas’s travel fatigue.]
Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2025-10-26
Game Times
ET: 5:10 PM
CT: 4:10 PM
MT: 3:10 PM
PT: 2:10 PM
AKT: 1:10 PM
HST: 11:10 AM
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 55.2% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | 32.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.50 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Tampa – Vegas) | [-0.32, 1.12] |
💸 Public Bets
Tampa Bay Lightning 62% / Vegas Golden Knights 38%
💰 Money Distribution
Tampa Bay Lightning 45% / Vegas Golden Knights 55%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Tampa -130 ML and 6 total, moving to -135/-140 ML and 6/6.5 total with slight steam toward the underdog on the puck line (-1.5 from -200 to -205 for Vegas +1.5), indicating sharp resistance despite public leaning on the favorite; totals held steady around 6.5 on major books like DraftKings and FanDuel.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1.8% on Vegas +1.5 (true cover probability 67.5% exceeds implied 67.2%); marginal +0.5% on Under 6.5 given simulation under edge and defensive metrics, but no clear EV on ML as Tampa’s 55.2% win rate falls short of -135 implied probability.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Brandon Hagel / Over 0.5 Points / Line 0.5 / +115 / 72% / Hagel leads Tampa with high usage (18:45 TOI average) and 0.8 points per game recently; Vegas ranks 22nd in defensive xGA per 60, supporting over based on Hagel’s 65% hit rate against similar opponents.
Player Prop #2: Pavel Dorofeyev / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / Line 2.5 / +120 / 70% / Dorofeyev averages 3.1 SOG in road games with Vegas’s top line firing; Tampa allows 31.2 shots per game (18th in league), and his 68% over rate in last 10 aligns with matchup pace.
Player Prop #3: Jack Eichel / Over 0.5 Assists / Line 0.5 / +170 / 65% / Eichel’s playmaking (0.7 assists per game) thrives against Tampa’s middling PK (79.2%); simulation projects Vegas chances creation, with Eichel hitting over in 62% of games vs. Eastern Conference teams.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Tampa at home, but divergent money distribution (55% on Vegas) and subtle reverse line movement on the puck line suggest sharp action on the underdog, creating value in fading the public there. Both teams show balanced but not explosive offenses (Tampa xGF/60 at 2.95, Vegas 3.05), with goalies like Vasilevskiy and Hill posting .915+ save percentages, pointing to a low-scoring, close contest under the total. No major injuries reported (Hagel and Kucherov active for Tampa; Vegas fully healthy), but Vegas’s cross-country travel adds slight fatigue adjustment favoring the under.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Vegas Golden Knights +1.5 — simulation and sharp indicators confirm a tight game where Tampa wins narrowly but rarely covers the puck line.
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