Calgary Flames vs New York Rangers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-26 08:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 05:07 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Rangers / Spread -1.5 / +200 / 55% / Rangers’ superior xGF and recent form against Flames’ defensive lapses create a 34.1% cover probability exceeding the 33.3% implied odds, yielding +2.3% EV amid stable line movement favoring the favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total 5.5 / -115 / 52% / Both teams’ low shooting percentages and strong goaltending metrics (Flames PK at 82%, Rangers high-danger saves) point to a simulated average of 5.6 goals, but under hits 50.5% with defensive matchup tilting low-scoring, +1.8% EV on public overreaction.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Rangers / Moneyline -125 / 60% / Simulation win probability of 58.9% surpasses 55.6% implied, supported by Rangers’ Corsi dominance and Flames’ road struggles, +3.2% EV with sharp money alignment.]

🏈 Matchup: Calgary Flames vs New York Rangers on 2025-10-26

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Rangers 68% / Flames 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Rangers 62% / Flames 38%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Rangers -115 ML and -1.5 +195 puck line, shifting slightly to -125 ML and +200 puck line with minor steam toward Rangers despite public heavy on the favorite; total steady at 5.5 throughout.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.8% on Rangers ML and puck line based on simulation probabilities outperforming implied odds, bolstered by Rangers’ 58% xGF share in recent games versus Flames’ 45% allowed; no edge on Flames side due to injury impacts and travel fatigue.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 41.1% |
| Win % for New York Rangers | 58.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Calgary Flames (+1.5) | 65.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.5% / Under: 50.5% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4 , 5] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 / -150 / 72% / Panarin’s 1.2 points per game average and 65% usage rate exploit Flames’ weak penalty kill (78% efficiency), with on-ice xGA at 2.1 vs Calgary’s 3.0 allowed to top lines.
• Player Prop #2: Jacob Markstrom / Under 28.5 Saves / 28.5 / -110 / 68% / Markstrom faces Rangers’ controlled pace (52% Corsi) and low shot volume (28.4 per game), averaging 26 saves recently against similar Eastern Conference offenses with defensive metrics favoring under.
• Player Prop #3: Mika Zibanejad / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 / -120 / 70% / Zibanejad’s 3.1 SOG average and high-danger shot rate (55%) thrive against Flames’ Fenwick vulnerabilities (48%), hitting over in 7 of last 9 home/away matchups for the opponent.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Rangers at 68%, aligning partially with money distribution at 62% but showing divergence that hints at sharp interest in the underdog Flames due to home-ice and Rangers’ road skid; however, metrics and simulation confirm following the favorite as optimal with positive EV on Rangers sides. Flames’ offense ranks mid-pack in xGF (2.8 per 60) but faces Rangers’ elite PK (85%), while Rangers’ defensive rating (2.4 xGA) suggests a controlled, potentially low-scoring affair under 5.5 goals. No strong contrarian fade justified, as line stability and injury data (Rangers missing Trocheck, Flames monitoring Kadri) support market consensus without overvaluation.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with New York Rangers — simulation and sharp alignment project a 58.9% win probability, making the moneyline and puck line the highest-EV options in a matchup tilted by Rangers’ superior advanced stats.

Highlights unavailable for future events.