Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-28 09:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-28 05:01 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 [New Jersey Devils / Spread / +1.5 at -188 / 65% / Devils’ eight-game win streak and road resilience provide value against Avalanche’s injury-hit lineup, with simulation showing low cover rate for Colorado -1.5.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -128 / 61% / Both teams’ defensive metrics and recent low-scoring trends (Avalanche allowing 2.8 GA/game, Devils 2.2) align with under, supported by average simulated goals at 6.0.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Colorado Avalanche / Moneyline / -162 / 59% / Home-ice edge and star power like MacKinnon outweigh Devils’ fatigue from back-to-back, with simulation win probability at 58.8% offering slight EV.]

Matchup: Colorado Avalanche vs New Jersey Devils on 2025-10-28

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Colorado Avalanche | 58.8% |
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 41.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Colorado Avalanche | 34.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 39.2% / Under: 60.8% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4, 5] |

💸 Public Bets
New Jersey Devils 58% / Colorado Avalanche 42%

💰 Money Distribution
New Jersey Devils 52% / Colorado Avalanche 48%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Avalanche moneyline opened at -150 and moved to -162 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel, indicating sharp action on home team despite public leaning Devils; puck line steady at -1.5 (+152 to +158), total shifted from 6 to 6.5 in spots with under juice rising.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Devils +1.5 and +3.1% on Under 6.5, driven by simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds and contextual factors like Avalanche injuries reducing offensive output.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nathan MacKinnon / Over 1.5 Points / 1.5 at -115 / 72% / MacKinnon’s league-leading xGF/60 (1.45) and top usage rate (28%) exploit Devils’ PK vulnerabilities, hitting over in 7 of last 10 home games.

Player Prop #2: Jack Hughes / Under 0.5 Goals / 0.5 at -125 / 68% / Hughes faces stout Avalanche defense (top-5 high-danger save %) and has scored under in 6 of 8 vs. Colorado historically, with recent shot volume down due to road fatigue.

Player Prop #3: Cale Makar / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at -140 / 75% / Makar’s PP quarterback role and 1.2 A/60 on home ice align with Devils’ 18% PK success rate, clearing in 8 straight vs. Eastern Conference foes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Devils due to their eight-game streak, but divergent money percentages and line movement toward the Avalanche suggest sharp resistance, creating value on Colorado at home. Both teams show solid defensive metrics (Avalanche Corsi 52%, Devils xGA/60 2.4), pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring affair rather than a shootout. Fade the public on the spread and total for optimal EV, as injuries to key Avalanche forwards like Nichushkin and Drouin temper scoring potential without fully eroding home advantage.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New Jersey Devils — simulation and sharp indicators favor Avalanche covering the adjusted edge in a tight contest.

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