Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks

League: NBA | Date: 2025-10-28 08:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-28 04:55 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Knicks / Spread / -2 at -110 / 52% / Simulation shows 51% cover probability for -1.5, adjusted for line at -2 with Knicks’ superior recent form and Bucks’ home defense allowing 115+ points lately.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 229.5 at -110 / 53% / Average simulated total of 228.5 points, with 52.5% under probability driven by both teams’ mid-pace games and Knicks’ road defensive efficiency.
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Knicks / Moneyline / -130 / 55% / 54.8% win probability from simulation, offering positive EV against implied odds, bolstered by Brunson’s scoring edge over Bucks’ backcourt.

Matchup: New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks on 2025-10-28

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Knicks 51% / Bucks 49%

💰 Money Distribution

Knicks 31% / Bucks 69%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Knicks -1.5, moved to -2.5 across books like DraftKings despite public ticket split on Knicks; total steady at 229.5 with slight under juice.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.1% on Knicks spread cover, as simulation probability exceeds implied odds, with reverse line movement hinting at sharp resistance to public fade.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Milwaukee Bucks | 45.2% |
| Win % for New York Knicks | 54.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Milwaukee Bucks (+1.5) | 49.3% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Knicks (-1.5) | 50.7% |
| Over 229.5 Probability | 47.5% |
| Under 229.5 Probability | 52.5% |
| Average Total Points | 228.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Bucks – Knicks) | [-31.8, 29.6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Giannis Antetokounmpo / Over 5.5 Assists / -135 / 65% / Bucks’ high assist rate to forwards (7.4 avg vs Knicks), Knicks allow most assists to PFs; usage spikes without Middleton.
Player Prop #2: Jalen Brunson / Over 25.5 Points / -110 / 58% / Knicks’ lead guard averages 28+ vs Bucks historically, exploiting Milwaukee’s perimeter defense ranked 18th in efficiency.
Player Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns / Under 12.5 Rebounds / -115 / 60% / Bucks dominate boards at home (top-5 rebounding rate), Knicks’ pace limits second-chance opps; sim projects 11.2 avg.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public tickets lean Knicks but money heavily favors Bucks, creating divergence that suggests sharp action on Milwaukee amid line movement against the favorite. Simulation aligns more with Knicks’ win probability due to offensive rating edges and Bucks’ injury impacts like Middleton’s absence, though EV is strongest on the under given both teams’ defensive rebounding and mid-tempo pace projecting below the total. Fade the heavy money on Bucks only if contextual factors like travel fatigue for Knicks weaken, but math supports following the spread value on New York. Overall game outlook points to a lower-scoring affair under 230, with Knicks’ interior defense capping Bucks’ paint scoring.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Knicks spread — bet New York Knicks -2, as simulation and EV confirm the edge despite money split.

Highlights unavailable for future events.