Phoenix Suns vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-10-29 10:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-29 06:16 PM EDT

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis Grizzlies / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 53% / Simulations show 52.7% cover rate for Grizzlies, supported by their superior offensive rating (115.2) against Suns’ defense (112.8), with public and money alignment adding edge without reverse movement.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 241.5 at -110 / 50% / Average simulated total of 241.4 falls just below the line, with both teams’ recent defensive efficiencies and moderate pace favoring a slightly low-scoring affair despite high public over lean.

💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline / -125 / 56% / Grizzlies hold 56.3% win probability in simulations, bolstered by better rest and matchup history, offering positive EV against Suns’ early-season struggles.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 56.3% |
| Win % for Phoenix Suns | 43.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 | 52.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.8% / Under: 50.2% |
| Average Total Points | 241.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (MEM – PHX) | [-30.5, 34.7] |

Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns on 2025-10-29

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
65% Memphis / 35% Phoenix

💰 Money Distribution
58% Memphis / 42% Phoenix

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Memphis -2 across major books; moved to -1.5 on select lines like FanDuel and DraftKings, indicating minor steam toward Phoenix despite public favoritism for Grizzlies. Total steady at 241-241.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.1% EV on Memphis -1.5 spread; simulations and advanced metrics (Grizzlies’ 115.2 offensive rating vs. Suns’ 112.8 defensive rating) support cover probability above break-even, with no significant reverse line movement to fade.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Ja Morant / Over 24.5 Points / -110 / 65% / Morant’s high usage rate (32%) and history of 26+ points in 7 of last 10 vs. Suns, combined with Phoenix’s weak perimeter defense allowing 25.3 PPG to opposing guards, make this a strong lean over based on offensive efficiency data.

Player Prop #2: Devin Booker / Over 5.5 Assists / -115 / 62% / Booker’s assist rate jumps to 28% without full lineup cohesion, and Memphis’ turnover-forcing defense (14.2% opp TO rate) creates transition opportunities; he’s hit over in 6 of 8 recent games with similar pace.

Player Prop #3: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over 9.5 Rebounds / -110 / 58% / Jackson’s 12.1 rebound rate vs. Suns’ middling frontcourt (allowing 48.2 opp REB%), plus Memphis’ emphasis on second-chance points (14.8 per game), supports over in simulations factoring defensive rebounding metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Grizzlies at 65%, aligning with money distribution at 58%, which reinforces the mathematical case without sharp contrarian signals like reverse line movement. Following the public here is optimal, as simulations and matchup data (Grizzlies’ edge in pace and efficiency) confirm positive EV on Memphis sides. Overall scoring outlook leans slightly under the total, with both teams’ defensive ratings (Grizzlies 110.5, Suns 112.8) projecting a controlled game below 242 points despite offensive talents.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Memphis -1.5 — the alignment of public bets, money flow, and simulation-backed 52.7% cover probability provides the strongest edge in this matchup.

Highlights unavailable for future events.