North Texas Mean Green vs Navy Midshipmen

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 12:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 06:44 AM EDT

💰 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Navy Midshipmen / Spread / +6.5 at -105 / 51% / Simulation indicates tight margins in 50.2% of outcomes, with North Texas wins often by less than a touchdown; line movement supports value on the underdog despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 65.5 at -110 / 55% / Average simulated total of 64.6 points aligns with both teams’ defensive efficiencies and Navy’s run-heavy, low-scoring style; recent trends show unders hitting in 60% of comparable matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [North Texas Mean Green / Moneyline / -245 / 77% / Dominant 76.9% win probability from simulations exceeds implied odds of 71%, backed by home advantage and superior SP+ ratings against Navy’s option attack.]

🏈 Matchup: Navy Midshipmen vs North Texas Mean Green on 2025-11-01

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

North Texas 68% / Navy 32%

💰 Money Distribution

North Texas 58% / Navy 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at North Texas -5.5 across major books; moved to -6.5 amid moderate volume, suggesting sharp action on the favorite despite public bets splitting closer to even on the spread. Total steady at 65.5-66.5 with slight Under juice emerging.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on North Texas moneyline (simulated win rate outperforms implied probability); +1.8% on Under 65.5 (defensive metrics and tempo project below line); marginal -0.5% on North Texas spread, favoring dog side for value.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for North Texas Mean Green | 76.9% |
| Win % for Navy Midshipmen | 19.3% |
| Spread Cover % for North Texas Mean Green (-6.5) | 49.8% |
| Over/Under Probability (65.5) | Over: 45.4% / Under: 54.6% |
| Average Total Points | 64.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (NT – Navy) | [-9, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Chandler Morris (North Texas QB) / Over 250.5 passing yards / -110 / 72% / Morris averages 285 YPG in home games with high completion rate (68%); Navy’s secondary ranks 98th in pass defense, allowing explosive plays.
• Player Prop #2: Blake Horvath (Navy QB) / Under 45.5 passing yards / -115 / 78% / Navy’s triple-option limits passes (Horvath at 32 YPG season avg); North Texas fronts disrupt QBs, projecting low aerial volume in run-focused scheme.
• Player Prop #3: North Texas Team / Over 200.5 rushing yards / -105 / 65% / Mean Green averages 245 rush YPG led by efficient backfield; Navy allows 180+ to mobile offenses, with simulations showing NT ground dominance in 62% of runs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors North Texas on the moneyline but splits on the spread, while money distribution shows sharper play on the host with some resistance via reverse movement on the total. Following the public aligns with mathematical edges here, as simulations confirm North Texas’s superior efficiency ratings and home-field boost without overhyping Navy’s undefeated run. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses capable of containing big plays—Navy’s havoc rate limits North Texas’s air attack, projecting a grind-it-out affair under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on North Texas — win probability and EV converge on the favorite in a matchup where contextual factors like rest and venue outweigh any fade opportunities.

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