Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 12:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 06:45 AM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Ohio State Buckeyes / Spread / -18.5 at -108 / 58% / Ohio State’s dominant defense and explosive offense project a comfortable margin, with simulation showing strong cover probability against a struggling Penn State unit hampered by recent losses and injuries.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 44.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams feature top-tier defenses allowing under 20 points per game recently, with low explosive play rates and weather forecasts favoring a controlled, low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Ohio State Buckeyes / Moneyline / -1200 / 94% / Buckeyes’ undefeated record, superior SP+ ratings, and home-field advantage overwhelm Penn State’s 3-4 form and turnover issues.

🏈 Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions on 2025-11-01

Game Times

• ET: 12:00 PM
• CT: 11:00 AM
• MT: 10:00 AM
• PT: 9:00 AM
• AKT: 8:00 AM
• HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Ohio State 78% / Penn State 22%

💰 Money Distribution

Ohio State 65% / Penn State 35%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -20.5 for Ohio State but has ticked down to -18.5 across major books like DraftKings and FanDuel, despite heavy public action on the Buckeyes, suggesting possible sharp money on Penn State amid injury concerns for key Nittany Lions players. Total steady at 44.5, with minimal movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Ohio State -18.5, driven by simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability; +1.8% on Under 44.5 from defensive efficiencies and recent trends under 45 points in 7 of Ohio State’s last 10. No clear ML edge beyond juice due to heavy favoritism.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ohio State Buckeyes | 93.2% |
| Win % for Penn State Nittany Lions | 6.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Ohio State Buckeyes -19.5 | 55.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Penn State Nittany Lions +19.5 | 44.7% |
| Over/Under Probability 45.5 | Over: 48.2% / Under: 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 45.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (OSU) | [15.2, 23.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Will Howard (Ohio State QB) / Over Passing Yards / 285.5 at -110 / 72% / Howard’s 68% completion rate and 8.2 yards per attempt exploit Penn State’s secondary, which ranks outside top 40 in pass defense efficiency, allowing 250+ yards in 4 of last 6 games.
• Player Prop #2: Nicholas Singleton (Penn State RB) / Under Rushing Yards / 65.5 at -115 / 68% / Singleton faces Ohio State’s No. 1 rush defense (2.8 yards per carry allowed), with Penn State’s offensive line struggling against top fronts, projecting under in 70% of simulations.
• Player Prop #3: Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State WR) / Over Receiving Yards / 85.5 at -105 / 65% / Smith’s 15.1 yards per catch average thrives against Penn State’s man coverage weaknesses, with high target share (25%) in favorable game script boosting over likelihood.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Ohio State, aligning with money distribution but showing divergence as lines softened slightly, hinting at sharp interest in Penn State covering amid Nittany Lions’ key injuries like potential QB limitations. Math supports following the public on the Buckeyes’ spread due to superior metrics in success rate and havoc creation, while defensive strengths on both sides point to a low-scoring game under the total. Overall outlook favors a controlled Buckeyes win by 20+ points, with limited explosive plays.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on Ohio State -18.5 — simulation and EV confirm the edge despite public steam, as contextual factors like Penn State’s poor form and Ohio State’s home dominance outweigh any sharp resistance.

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