Temple Owls vs East Carolina Pirates

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 02:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:35 PM EDT

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 East Carolina Pirates / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation indicates a narrow edge for ECU to cover, supported by superior SP+ ratings and recent form against similar defenses, with line movement favoring the favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 58 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank below average in yards per play and explosive plays, with defensive havoc rates suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair averaging 56.4 points in projections.
💰 Best Bet #3 East Carolina Pirates / Moneyline / -215 / 66% / ECU’s win probability aligns with offensive tempo advantages and Temple’s turnover issues, providing value despite the juice on the favorite.

East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls on 2025-11-01

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Temple Owls | 31.7% |
| Win % for East Carolina Pirates | 65.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Temple Owls | 49.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46.6% / Under: 53.4% |
| Average Total Points | 56.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.2, 5.7] |

💸 Public Bets

East Carolina 68% / Temple 32%

💰 Money Distribution

East Carolina 45% / Temple 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at East Carolina -4.5 across major books; moved to -5.5 on DraftKings, BetMGM, and others despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating potential sharp money on Temple +5.5. Total steady at 58 with slight under juice on some books.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on East Carolina -5.5; implied probability from odds (52.4%) undervalues simulation’s 50.3% cover rate when adjusted for Temple’s home underperformance and ECU’s road success rate.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Katin Houser (ECU QB) / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 72% / Houser’s 68% completion rate and 7.8 yards per attempt exploit Temple’s 112th-ranked pass defense, averaging 278 yards in last five starts.
• Player Prop #2: London Montgomery (ECU RB) / Under Rushing Yards / 64.5 / -110 / 68% / Temple’s front seven allows just 3.9 yards per carry, and Montgomery’s usage dips on the road against stacked boxes per recent trends.
• Player Prop #3: Evan Simon (Temple QB) / Over Passing Yards / 239.5 / -105 / 70% / Simon’s 62% completion and 8.2 YPA thrive against ECU’s secondary (4th-down conversion vulnerability), projecting 255 yards in sims.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors East Carolina, but divergent money flow toward Temple suggests sharp resistance, potentially tied to home-field value and ECU’s travel fatigue. Math supports following the public on the spread with a slight edge, as SP+ differentials and turnover margins favor ECU covering. Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both offenses struggling in red-zone efficiency against these defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on East Carolina -5.5 — simulation and market consensus point to a 5.5-point edge holding in 50.3% of outcomes.

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