NCAAFSouth Alabama Jaguars vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 03:30 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:40 PM EDT
Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 South Alabama Jaguars / Spread / -3.5 at -115 / 55% / Simulation shows 55.1% cover rate with strong home-field edge and Louisiana’s offensive line injuries limiting their run game against South Alabama’s defense.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 52.5 at -115 / 52% / Both teams rank low in explosive plays and yards per attempt, with recent games averaging under 50 points combined and defensive metrics favoring a low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 South Alabama Jaguars / Moneyline / -174 / 65% / Jaguars hold 65.2% win probability per simulations, bolstered by better success rate and turnover margin versus a struggling Cajuns squad on the road.
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Alabama Jaguars | 65.2% |
| Win % for Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for South Alabama Jaguars | 55.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 52.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [ -8.4, 12.7 ] |
Matchup: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at South Alabama Jaguars on 2025-11-01
Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM
💸 Public Bets
68% South Alabama / 32% Louisiana
💰 Money Distribution
55% South Alabama / 45% Louisiana
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3 and has held steady at -3.5 across major books, with minimal steam despite public leaning on the favorite; no significant reverse movement noted.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% EV on South Alabama -3.5, driven by simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds and contextual factors like Louisiana’s key OL and secondary injuries weakening their ability to protect against the Jaguars’ pass rush.
Top 3 Player Props
- Player Prop #1: Kentrel Bullock / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 at -110 / 68% / Bullock projects for 131 yards in simulations, with South Alabama’s ground game averaging 4.8 yards per carry against run defenses like Louisiana’s, which has allowed 150+ rush yards in 4 of last 6 games.
- Player Prop #2: D’Wanyé Winfield / Under Passing Yards / 200.5 at -115 / 62% / Winfield’s efficiency drops on the road (CPOE under 0%), facing South Alabama’s havoc rate of 18% that pressures QBs into short throws and sacks, supporting under based on recent form under 180 yards in 3 straight.
- Player Prop #3: Bishop Davenport / Over Passing Yards / 175.5 at -110 / 65% / Davenport thrives at home with 62% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt, exploiting Louisiana’s secondary injuries that have led to opponents averaging 220+ passing yards in vulnerable matchups.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors South Alabama as the home favorite, but money shows slight divergence toward Louisiana, suggesting possible sharp interest in the underdog amid the Cajuns’ road struggles. However, simulations and metrics align more with following the public here, as South Alabama’s superior success rate (42% vs. 37%) and red-zone efficiency provide a clear edge without forcing a fade. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses ranking top-60 in yards per play allowed and offenses hampered by injuries, pointing to a grind-it-out game under the total.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with South Alabama -3.5 — simulations confirm the highest probability at 55.1% cover rate, backed by home advantage and matchup data.
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