Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-01 04:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:43 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Arkansas Razorbacks / Spread / -4.5 at -115 / 54% / Simulation shows 52.3% cover rate exceeding implied probability, bolstered by home-field advantage in Fayetteville and Mississippi State’s 0-4 SEC road struggles against the spread.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 66.5 at -115 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom half of SEC defenses allowing over 28 points per game, with average simulated total of 65.0 points and recent trends toward high-scoring affairs despite the line.

💰 Best Bet #3 Arkansas Razorbacks / Moneyline / -198 / 58% / 58.2% win probability from simulations aligns with public consensus but offers value given Mississippi State’s turnover-prone offense facing Arkansas’s opportunistic secondary.

🏈 Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Mississippi State Bulldogs on 2025-11-01

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

68% Arkansas / 32% Mississippi State

💰 Money Distribution

55% Arkansas / 45% Mississippi State

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -3.5 for Arkansas but has held steady at -4.5 across major books like FanDuel and DraftKings, with minimal movement despite public leaning; totals ticked up from 65 to 65.5 on some books, indicating balanced action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Arkansas -4.5 spread, driven by 58% simulated win probability exceeding the -110 implied 52.4%; over 65.5 offers +1.8% EV given average simulated total of 65.0 and both teams’ poor red-zone defenses allowing frequent scoring.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas Razorbacks | 58.2% |
| Win % for Mississippi State Bulldogs | 41.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Arkansas Razorbacks -4.5 | 52.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.1% / Under: 48.9% |
| Average Total Points | 65.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [0.5, 4.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Taylen Green (Mississippi State QB) Over 225.5 Passing Yards at -110 / 62% / Green averages 248 passing yards per game against SEC defenses, and Arkansas’s secondary ranks 10th in the conference allowing explosive plays over 20 yards, supporting the over based on Mississippi State’s tempo-driven offense.

Player Prop #2: AJ Green (Arkansas RB) Over 68.5 Rushing Yards at -115 / 58% / Green has eclipsed 70 yards in 4 of last 5 home games, exploiting Mississippi State’s run defense that yields 4.8 yards per carry; simulations project Arkansas leaning on ground game for 150+ team rushing yards.

Player Prop #3: Isaiah Sategna (Arkansas WR) Over 55.5 Receiving Yards at +100 / 55% / Sategna’s 72 yards per game average thrives against Mississippi State’s man coverage weaknesses, with Arkansas’s passing efficiency up 15% at home; defensive data shows Bulldogs allowing 180 receiving yards to slot receivers.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Arkansas at 68%, but money distribution at 55% suggests some sharp action balancing toward Mississippi State, creating divergent alignment without clear reverse line movement to confirm professional bets. Mathematical edges point to following the favorite on the spread due to simulation-backed probabilities and home advantage, while totals lean slightly over from both teams’ defensive lapses allowing 30+ points recently. Overall game outlook projects a moderate-scoring affair around 65 points, with Arkansas controlling possession but vulnerable to Mississippi State’s explosive plays.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public on Arkansas -4.5 — Simulations and EV calculations confirm the edge despite money split, as contextual factors like travel fatigue for the Bulldogs and Arkansas’s red-zone efficiency outweigh any contrarian signals.

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