Nashville Predators vs Calgary Flames

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-01 03:40 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 12:22 PM EDT

💰 Best Bet #1 [Calgary Flames / Spread / +1.5 at -235 / 73% / Simulation shows strong cover probability due to close win margins and Nashville’s injury impacts on defense, aligning with low-scoring trends for both teams early in the season.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at +100 / 53% / Both teams rank low in goals per game, with Nashville’s depleted blue line and Calgary’s defensive structure favoring a total near the average of 5.5 goals.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Calgary Flames / Moneyline / +110 / 49% / Positive EV edge as simulated win probability exceeds implied odds, supported by even matchup metrics and Predators’ key absences.]

Matchup: Calgary Flames @ Nashville Predators on 2025-11-01

Game Times

ET: 3:40 PM
CT: 2:40 PM
MT: 1:40 PM
PT: 12:40 PM
AKT: 11:40 AM
HST: 9:40 AM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 49.4% |
| Win % for Nashville Predators | 50.6% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Calgary Flames (+1.5) | 73.3% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Nashville Predators (-1.5) | 26.7% |
| Over 5.5 Probability | 47.0% |
| Under 5.5 Probability | 53.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Goal Margin (CGY – NSH) | [-5, 5] |

💸 Public Bets

Nashville Predators 65% / Calgary Flames 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Nashville Predators 55% / Calgary Flames 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at Nashville -130 to -135 ML and 5.5 total; slight sharpening on Predators spread from -1.5 at +180 to +195, indicating balanced action without major RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Calgary +1.5 (simulated cover exceeds implied 70% threshold); +2.8% on Under 5.5 (defensive metrics and goalie matchups support lower totals despite average projection).

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Juuse Saros / Over Saves / 25.5 at -110 / 72% / Saros faces high shot volume from Calgary’s balanced attack, averaging 28 saves in recent starts with Nashville’s defense missing Josi.
Player Prop #2: Filip Forsberg / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 68% / Forsberg leads Predators in shots (3.8 avg), exploiting Calgary’s mid-tier defense allowing 31 shots per game.
Player Prop #3: Nazem Kadri / Over Points / 0.5 at +100 / 62% / Kadri’s 55% faceoff win rate and top-line role yield points in 60% of games against similar defensive setups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public and money percentages align on the home favorite Nashville, but the simulation reveals a tighter contest influenced by Predators’ injuries to Roman Josi and Connor Wilsby, weakening their blue line. Following the market consensus carries risk without strong EV, as Calgary’s road resilience and even xGF metrics suggest value in the underdog side. Overall game scoring leans low, with both teams’ early-season defensive efficiencies (Calgary 2.66 GA/G, Nashville 2.39 GA/G) pointing to a sub-6 total.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Calgary Flames +1.5 — mathematical probabilities and injury context outweigh home favoritism for the highest EV opportunity.

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