Columbus Blue Jackets vs St Louis Blues

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-01 07:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-11-01 06:21 PM EDT

Columbus Blue Jackets vs St Louis Blues on 2025-11-01

Game Times

• ET: 7:10 PM
• CT: 6:10 PM
• MT: 5:10 PM
• PT: 4:10 PM
• AKT: 3:10 PM
• HST: 1:10 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Columbus Blue Jackets / Spread / -1.5 at +164 / 33% / Simulation indicates limited edge on the puck line, but recent Blue Jackets form at home supports covering against a struggling Blues road team, with defensive metrics favoring a multi-goal outcome in 32.8% of scenarios.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 56% / Both teams show below-average scoring trends, with Blues allowing low xGA on the road and Jackets’ goaltending stabilizing; average simulated goals at 6.3 align with under hitting in 55.4% of runs.

💰 Best Bet #3 Columbus Blue Jackets / Moneyline / -148 / 59% / Home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics give Jackets a 58.9% win probability, closely matching implied odds for a slight positive EV edge despite public leaning.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Columbus Blue Jackets | 58.9% |
| Win % for St Louis Blues | 41.1% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Columbus Blue Jackets (-1.5) | 32.8% |
| Puck Line Cover % for St Louis Blues (+1.5) | 67.2% |
| Over/Under Probability (6.5) | Over: 44.6% / Under: 55.4% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Home – Away) | [-4.0, 5.0] |

💸 Public Bets
Columbus Blue Jackets 68% / St Louis Blues 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Columbus Blue Jackets 62% / St Louis Blues 38%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
The moneyline opened at -142 for Columbus and has ticked to -148 across books like DraftKings, with puck line steady at -1.5 (+164); total holds firm at 6.5 despite slight under juice on FanDuel, indicating sharp resistance to public favorite action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1.8% on Under 6.5, driven by simulation’s 55.4% probability versus -110 implied (52.4%); puck line +1.5 for Blues offers +0.5% EV at -198, as 67.2% cover rate exceeds vig-adjusted break-even.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan Kyrou / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -120 / 65% / Kyrou averages 3.1 SOG per game against Central Division foes, with Blues’ power play usage boosting volume; matchup vs. Jackets’ mid-tier shot suppression favors over in high-pace scenarios.

Player Prop #2: Kirill Marchenko / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at +110 / 58% / Marchenko’s 0.8 points per game at home aligns with Blues’ penalty kill vulnerabilities (78.2%); recent form shows multi-point potential in 55% of simulations against similar defenses.

Player Prop #3: Jordan Binnington / Under 28.5 Saves / 28.5 at -115 / 62% / Binnington faces projected 25-27 shots based on Jackets’ 29.4 shots/60 rate, with Blues’ defensive Corsi (51.2%) limiting attempts; under hits in 60% of road starts per advanced metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the home Blue Jackets at 68%, but divergent money distribution (62% on Columbus) suggests some sharp action on the Blues’ side, particularly the +1.5 puck line amid reverse line stability. Following the simulation’s under lean makes sense mathematically, as both teams’ xGA per 60 (Columbus 2.9, St. Louis 3.1) points to a low-scoring affair below 6.5, avoiding overreaction to Columbus’ recent hot streak. Overall game outlook favors defensive battle with limited high-danger chances.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on St Louis Blues +1.5 — 67.2% cover probability and +0.5% EV outweigh public favoritism toward Columbus, supported by Blues’ road resilience and simulation margins within one goal in over 60% of runs.

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