NFL
Cincinnati Bengals vs 
Chicago Bears
League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-02 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:16 AM EST
🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 Cincinnati Bengals / Spread / +2.5 at +100 / 52% / Bengals show value as underdogs with Burrow’s efficiency against Bears’ secondary, supported by recent form and home-field metrics indicating a close contest.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 51.5 at -108 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in EPA allowed recently, with average simulated total of 45.5 points pointing to a controlled, low-scoring affair despite offensive potentials.
💰 Best Bet #3 Cincinnati Bengals / Moneyline / +130 / 46% / Undervalued at home with public leaning in but sharp money potentially following; simulation edges Bengals win probability above implied odds.
🏈 Matchup: Chicago Bears vs Cincinnati Bengals on 2025-11-02
Game Times
- ET: 1:00 PM
- CT: 12:00 PM
- MT: 11:00 AM
- PT: 10:00 AM
- AKT: 9:00 AM
- HST: 8:00 AM
💸 Public Bets
Cincinnati Bengals 59% / Chicago Bears 41%
💰 Money Distribution
Cincinnati Bengals 60% / Chicago Bears 40%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Bears -1.5 and moved to -2.5 despite heavy public and money action on Bengals, suggesting possible sharp resistance on the favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2% on Bengals +2.5; implied probability undervalues simulation cover rate, with contextual factors like Burrow’s home splits and Bears’ road EPA disadvantages creating positive EV.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cincinnati Bengals | 45.2% |
| Win % for Chicago Bears | 52.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bears (-2.5) | 48.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) | 51.9% |
| Over/Under Probability (51.5) | Over: 48.5% / Under: 51.5% |
| Average Total Points | 45.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Bears Margin | [-20.5, 24.2] |
Top 3 Player Props
- Player Prop #1: Joe Burrow / Over Passing Yards / 275.5 at -110 / 65% / Burrow averages 285 yards at home vs similar secondaries; Bears allow 260+ passing EPA recently, favoring over in high-possession matchup.
- Player Prop #2: DJ Moore / Over Receiving Yards / 70.5 at -115 / 62% / Moore’s 75-yard average with Williams; Bengals’ secondary vulnerable to slot receivers, with usage rate over 25% supporting over.
- Player Prop #3: Ja’Marr Chase / Anytime TD / Yes at +150 / 58% / Chase scores in 60% of home games; Bears’ red-zone defense ranks 22nd, and his target share (30%) boosts TD probability against man coverage.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with money distribution on the Bengals as underdogs, but the line movement against this action hints at sharp play on Bears, though simulation and EV metrics favor following the public on Bengals side for a close game. Offensive EPA for both teams suggests moderate scoring, but defensive efficiencies and weather (mild 55°F, light winds) tilt toward under total. No major injuries shift the edge—Flacco questionable for Bengals but Burrow confirmed; Bears’ Swift out limits run game.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public on Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 — mathematical probability supports the cover with home advantage and matchup edges outweighing favorite hype.
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