Utah Mammoth vs Tampa Bay Lightning

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-02 03:40 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:24 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Utah Mammoth / Spread / +1.5 at -265 / 69% / Simulation indicates low 31% cover rate for Tampa -1.5, with close projected scores favoring a one-goal game or less.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -130 / 54% / Average simulated goals at 6.41, combined with strong defensive metrics and recent low-scoring trends for both teams.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -115 / 54% / Slight edge in win probability from simulation, supported by better xGF and home-ice adjustment despite road travel.]

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Utah Mammoth on 2025-11-02

Game Times

ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets

Tampa Bay 55% / Utah Mammoth 45%

💰 Money Distribution

Tampa Bay 60% / Utah Mammoth 40%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened near even but moved slightly toward Tampa Bay -115 ML despite balanced public action; puck line stable at Utah +1.5 -265, total steady around 6-6.5 with minor Under movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% EV on Utah +1.5 based on simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds; positive edge on Tampa ML at +2.1% EV from 54% win prob vs. -115 implied 53.5%.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Utah Mammoth | 45.64% |
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 54.37% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Tampa Bay -1.5 | 31.01% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Utah +1.5 | 68.99% |
| Over 6.5 Probability | 45.76% |
| Under 6.5 Probability | 54.24% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.41 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Tampa – Utah) | [-5, 5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nikita Kucherov / Over 0.5 Points / -150 / 72% / High usage rate and strong xGF contribution against Utah’s middling PK, recent form shows points in 8 of last 10 games.
Player Prop #2: Andrei Vasilevskiy / Under 28.5 Saves / -120 / 65% / Utah averages 29.2 SOG per game but simulation projects lower shot volume in a controlled matchup, Vasilevskiy faces under this line in 60% of road starts.
Player Prop #3: Clayton Keller / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / +110 / 58% / Leads Utah in SOG at 3.1 per game, Tampa allows 3.2 SOG to top-line forwards, positive EV from matchup and home ice.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public and money percentages align on Tampa Bay as the slight favorite, with no significant reverse line movement indicating sharp resistance. Following the market consensus makes sense here, as simulation and metrics support Tampa’s edge without overvaluation from hype. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with both teams’ defensive xGA and goalie save percentages projecting under the total based on recent trends and injuries limiting offensive depth.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Tampa Bay Lightning ML — simulation win probability and aligned betting action provide the strongest mathematical edge in a closely contested matchup.

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