Philadelphia Flyers vs Calgary Flames

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-02 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:25 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Calgary Flames / Spread / +1.5 at -220 / 65% / Flames cover in 66.5% of simulations, supported by their defensive structure limiting blowouts despite recent losses]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -130 / 51% / Simulated average of 5.7 goals edges toward over, with both teams’ recent games showing moderate scoring trends]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Philadelphia Flyers / Moneyline / -135 / 59% / Flyers win 59.1% in simulations, bolstered by home-ice advantage and Flames’ three-game skid]

Matchup: Calgary Flames vs Philadelphia Flyers on 2025-11-02

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[35% Calgary Flames / 65% Philadelphia Flyers]

💰 Money Distribution

[45% Calgary Flames / 55% Philadelphia Flyers]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Lines opened with Flyers at -130 ML and total at 5.5; minimal movement to -135 ML and steady total, indicating stable action without significant sharp pushes.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Flyers ML] — Implied probability of 57.4% undervalues the 59.1% simulated win rate, creating value amid Flyers’ stronger form (6-4-1) versus Flames’ struggles (2-9-2).

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 59.1% |
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 40.9% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 | 33.5% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Calgary Flames +1.5 | 66.5% |
| Over Probability (5.5) | 50.7% |
| Under Probability (5.5) | 49.3% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Flyers – Flames) | [0.5, 0.6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Matvei Michkov / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 72% / Michkov’s high-danger involvement yields points in 70% of recent games, with Flyers’ power play at 22% efficiency against Flames’ middling PK.
Player Prop #2: Nazem Kadri / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / -110 / 68% / Kadri averages 2.9 SOG per game, rising to 3.1 on the road, and Flames’ shot volume holds steady despite losses.
Player Prop #3: Owen Tippett / Over 0.5 Points / +105 / 65% / Tippett’s 0.66 goals per sim aligns with top-line usage, exploiting Flames’ defensive xGA of 3.2 per 60 minutes.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Flyers as home favorites, aligning with money distribution and no clear sharp resistance via line movement. Following the public makes sense here, as metrics like xGF (Flyers 2.8 vs Flames 2.4) and recent form support a Flyers edge without overvaluation. Game scoring outlook points to moderate totals around 5.7 goals, favoring slight overs given both teams’ Corsi rates above 50% but goalie save percentages dipping below .900 in losses. No major injuries reported, though Flames’ fatigue from a losing streak adds caution.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Philadelphia Flyers] — Highest probability stems from 59.1% win simulations and home advantage outweighing Flames’ resilience in close games.

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