New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:23 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Knicks / Spread / -7 at -110 / 50% / Simulation shows Knicks covering in nearly half of scenarios, supported by home advantage and Bulls’ injury concerns, aligning with line movement toward New York despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 236.5 at -110 / 51% / Average simulated total of 234.9 falls below the line, driven by Knicks’ defensive rating and Bulls’ slower pace without key guards, with recent trends favoring lower-scoring affairs.

💰 Best Bet #3 New York Knicks / Moneyline / -270 / 66% / Knicks hold a clear edge in win probability from metrics like offensive efficiency and rest, with public and sharp money converging on New York as the safer side.

🏀 Matchup: Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks on 2025-11-02

Game Times

• ET: 7:00 PM
• CT: 6:00 PM
• MT: 5:00 PM
• PT: 4:00 PM
• AKT: 3:00 PM
• HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Knicks 70% / Bulls 30%

💰 Money Distribution

Knicks 60% / Bulls 40%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Knicks -6.5 across most books; moved to -7 on FanDuel and Caesars amid moderate volume, signaling sharp action on New York despite heavier public tickets on the favorite.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Knicks | 65.8% |
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 34.2% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Knicks (-7) | 49.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.4% / Under: 50.6% |
| Average Total Points | 234.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Knicks) | [-25.7, 40.4] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Knicks moneyline; implied probability of 73% undervalues the 65.8% simulated win rate when adjusted for home-court and Bulls’ absences, with reverse line movement confirming value against public overreaction to Chicago’s early streak.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Jalen Brunson / Over Points + Assists / 30.5 at -110 / 68% / Brunson’s usage rate exceeds 30% in home games, averaging 28.2 PRA vs. similar defenses; Knicks’ pace boosts opportunities against Bulls’ weakened backcourt.
• Player Prop #2: Nikola Vucevic / Over Rebounds / 12.5 at -110 / 62% / Vucevic’s rebounding rate hits 15% early season, exploiting Knicks’ 24th-ranked defensive rebounding; simulation projects 13.1 boards in high-pace matchup.
• Player Prop #3: Josh Giddey / Over Assists / 8.5 at -110 / 55% / Giddey’s playmaking surges without White (assist% 28%), averaging 9.4 in recent starts; Bulls’ reliance on him vs. Knicks’ perimeter D favors the over.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Knicks on the spread and moneyline, but divergent money percentages suggest sharp resistance, creating value in fading the total under amid both teams’ mid-tier paces and defensive efficiencies (Knicks allow 116.3 at home, Bulls score 120.7 but face travel fatigue). The game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring contest below the total, with Knicks’ home advantage and Bulls’ injuries (e.g., Coby White out) tilting metrics toward New York without overvaluing the public side. Following the alignment on Knicks ML optimizes EV, as simulations and line stability confirm no clear fade opportunity elsewhere.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Knicks moneyline — strongest probability from convergent sharp action, home metrics, and simulation win rate outweighing the juice for positive edge.

Highlights unavailable for future events.