Murray St Racers vs Omaha Mavericks

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 01:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 05:22 AM EST

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Omaha Mavericks / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 57% / Simulation indicates Murray covers just 43% of the time against the spread, creating value on the underdog with Omaha’s defensive rebounding edge and Murray’s potential slow start in a neutral-site opener.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 149.5 at -102 / 70% / Both teams rank low in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom previews, with an average simulated total of 143.1 points driven by strong defensive metrics and limited tempo.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Murray St Racers / Moneyline / -198 / 64% / Murray holds a clear edge in win probability from simulations, bolstered by superior talent depth despite the line implying a slightly higher 66% chance.]

Matchup: Murray St Racers vs Omaha Mavericks on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 1:30 PM
CT: 12:30 PM
MT: 11:30 AM
PT: 10:30 AM
AKT: 9:30 AM
HST: 8:30 AM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Murray St Racers | 63.9% |
| Win % for Omaha Mavericks | 36.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Murray St Racers (-4.5) | 43.1% |
| Over/Under Probability (148.5) | Over: 30.5% / Under: 69.5% |
| Average Total Points | 143.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-13.4, 19.4] |

💸 Public Bets

Murray St Racers 72% / Omaha Mavericks 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Murray St Racers 58% / Omaha Mavericks 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -4.5 for Murray across most books but has ticked down to -4 or -3.5 at several (e.g., BetRivers, BetMGM), despite heavy public action on the favorite; total steady around 150.5 with slight juice shift toward under.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Omaha +4.5 (implied probability 52.4% vs. simulated 56.9% cover rate); +4.8% on under 149.5 (implied 50.5% vs. 69.5% simulation); positive EV aligns with divergent money suggesting sharp interest in the underdog and low total.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: JaCobi Wood (Murray St) / Over Points / 18.5 / -115 / 72% / Wood averaged 19.2 PPG in exhibitions with high usage (28%) against mid-major defenses like Omaha’s, which allowed 78 PPG last season; matchup favors his scoring efficiency.
Player Prop #2: Frankie Fidler (Omaha) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 / -110 / 68% / Fidler hit under in 7 of 10 games last year on the road/neutral, facing Murray’s strong defensive rebounding (top-150 nationally per early metrics); limited minutes expected in a lower-tempo game.
Player Prop #3: Nick Missman (Omaha) / Over Assists / 3.5 / -120 / 65% / Missman dished 4+ in 60% of starts last season as primary facilitator, exploiting Murray’s occasional turnover-prone backcourt (15% TO rate in sims); high assist probability in transition spots.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Murray on the spread and moneyline, but money distribution leans more balanced toward Omaha, indicating potential sharp action on the underdog amid reverse line movement. Simulations and efficiency metrics support fading the public here, as Omaha’s havoc defense could keep the game close while both squads project for a low-scoring affair below the total. Overall outlook points to a grind-it-out opener with under 150.5 as the strongest play, driven by defensive rebounding and moderate tempos.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Omaha Mavericks — simulations show a clear edge on the spread cover with positive EV from market divergence and contextual defensive strengths.

Highlights unavailable for future events.