Western Michigan Broncos vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:43 PM EST

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs Western Michigan Broncos on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers / +2.5 / -118 / 68% / Simulation shows strong cover probability for the underdog at home, with adjusted efficiency metrics favoring Coastal’s defensive rebounding and WM’s road struggles aligning for a close contest.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 145.5 / -115 / 54% / Both teams exhibit mid-tempo play with offensive rebounding rates above 30%, pushing average totals near 148, supported by recent form trends in openers.
💰 Best Bet #3 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers / +115 / 66% / True win probability exceeds implied odds by 20%, driven by home advantage and WM’s poor non-conference road record.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 66.3% |
| Win % for Western Michigan Broncos | 33.7% |
| Tie % | 0.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Coastal Carolina (0) | 66.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Western Michigan (0) | 33.7% |
| Over 147 Probability | 52.5% |
| Under 47 Probability | 47.5% |
| Average Total Points | 148.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (CC – WM) | [-26.4, 40.4] |

💸 Public Bets
Western Michigan 58% / Coastal Carolina 42%

💰 Money Distribution
Western Michigan 45% / Coastal Carolina 55%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Western Michigan -2 across major books, with minimal shift from open despite early public lean on the favorite; total steady at 145.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Coastal Carolina moneyline, as simulation-derived probability (66%) significantly outpaces implied odds (46%), bolstered by divergent money flow suggesting sharp action on the home underdog.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: AJ Hoggard (Western Michigan) / Under 14.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Hoggard’s usage drops in road openers against pressing defenses like Coastal’s (top-150 in turnover-forcing rate), with recent exhibitions under this line in 4 of 5.
Player Prop #2: Cameron Mobley (Coastal Carolina) / Over 12.5 Points / -115 / 69% / Home advantage boosts Mobley’s efficiency (eFG% 55% at HTC Center), facing WM’s weaker perimeter D allowing 35% from three; hit over in 70% of home games last season.
Player Prop #3: Western Michigan Team Total / Under 72.5 / -105 / 65% / Broncos’ offense struggles on road (adj. eff. 95), limited by Coastal’s rebounding edge (35% def. reb. rate) and pace mismatch favoring low-possession sets.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the road favorite Western Michigan, but divergent money distribution and simulation metrics point to sharp resistance, making a fade optimal with positive EV on Coastal Carolina. Contextual factors like home-court edge for Coastal (59% win rate in openers) and no major injuries reported align with the math. Overall game scoring outlook leans slightly over due to both teams’ mid-range offensive ratings and turnover vulnerabilities, projecting a 74-71 Coastal win.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Western Michigan — Coastal Carolina moneyline offers the best mathematical probability.

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