George Mason Patriots vs Wofford Terriers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:45 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 George Mason Patriots / Spread / -14.5 at -110 / 52% / George Mason’s strong home efficiency and Wofford’s road struggles align with simulation edges, though line movement suggests value on the favorite covering in a high-pace matchup.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 139.5 at -112 / 63% / Both teams’ adjusted efficiencies project above-average scoring, with George Mason’s up-tempo style and Wofford’s poor defensive rebounding favoring a push past the line based on recent trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 George Mason Patriots / Moneyline / -1300 / 74% / Dominant home advantage and superior metrics give George Mason a clear edge, with simulation confirming low upset risk against a weaker Wofford squad.

George Mason Patriots vs Wofford Terriers on 2025-11-03

Game Times

• ET: 7:00 PM
• CT: 6:00 PM
• MT: 5:00 PM
• PT: 4:00 PM
• AKT: 3:00 PM
• HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for George Mason Patriots | 73.6% |
| Win % for Wofford Terriers | 26.4% |
| Spread Cover % for George Mason Patriots | 45.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 62.9% / Under: 37.1% |
| Average Total Points | 147.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-22.4, 45.0] |

💸 Public Bets

George Mason 72% / Wofford 28%

💰 Money Distribution

George Mason 58% / Wofford 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -15.5 for George Mason and has moved to -14.5, shifting toward Wofford despite heavy public backing on the favorite, indicating potential sharp action on the underdog. Total has ticked down slightly from 141.5 to 139.5, reflecting caution on scoring but simulation suggests overvalue.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Wofford +14.5 due to reverse line movement and simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds; +2.8% on Over 139.5 from pace and efficiency mismatches outpacing market projection.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Keyshawn Hall (George Mason) / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 68% / Hall’s 22.1 PPG average and high usage rate (28%) exploit Wofford’s weak perimeter defense (38% opponent 3P allowed), with simulation projecting 20+ in home openers.
• Player Prop #2: Darius Quisenberry (George Mason) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 62% / Quisenberry’s 5.2 APG in transition-heavy games aligns with Wofford’s turnover-prone guard play (15% TO rate), supported by George Mason’s fast tempo.
• Player Prop #3: Corey Robinson (Wofford) / Under Rebounds / 6.5 at -105 / 59% / Robinson’s 5.8 RPG drops against strong interior defenses like George Mason’s (top-100 defensive rebounding), with injuries limiting frontcourt support and simulation favoring low boards.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors George Mason on the spread and moneyline, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement point to sharp resistance, creating value on Wofford covering and the over. No major injuries reported for either side, though Wofford’s travel fatigue could amplify George Mason’s home edge. Overall scoring outlook leans high, with combined offensive efficiencies (KenPom top-150) and poor defensive rebounding projecting 147+ points against a middling total line.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with George Mason — simulation and home metrics confirm the favorite’s probability despite line softening, offering positive EV on the moneyline without forcing a fade.

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