Kansas Jayhawks vs Green Bay Phoenix

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 07:08 PM EST

Kansas Jayhawks vs Green Bay Phoenix on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Kansas Jayhawks / Spread / -30.5 at -115 / 51% / Kansas enters as a massive favorite with superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court dominance at Allen Fieldhouse, supported by simulation cover probability adjusted for the line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 51% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and defensive rebounding strengths, with recent trends and matchup data pointing to a controlled pace below the line, per average simulated total of 151.6 points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Kansas Jayhawks / Moneyline / -20000 / 99% / Overwhelming talent disparity and historical performance against mid-majors make Kansas a near-certainty, backed by 99% win probability in simulations.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kansas Jayhawks | 99.0% |
| Win % for Green Bay Phoenix | 0.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Kansas Jayhawks -28.5 | 50.8% |
| Over/Under Probability 151.5 | Over: 49.6% / Under: 50.4% |
| Average Total Points | 151.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5, 53] |

💸 Public Bets
Kansas 92% / Green Bay 8%

💰 Money Distribution
Kansas 88% / Green Bay 12%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Kansas -28.5, moved to -30.5 across major books like FanDuel and BetMGM, reflecting heavier action on the favorite despite public dominance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Kansas spread cover, driven by efficiency metrics and simulation convergence outweighing the inflated line.

Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Hunter Dickinson / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 72% / Dickinson’s 68% FG efficiency and rebounding dominance exploit Green Bay’s weak interior defense, averaging 20+ in home openers.
– Player Prop #2: Darryn Peterson / Over Points / 14.5 at -105 / 68% / As a top freshman recruit, Peterson’s usage rate and scoring burst against lesser competition align with 15+ points in simulations, boosted by home hype.
– Player Prop #3: Kansas Team Total / Over Team Points / 92.5 at -110 / 70% / Kansas’s adjusted offensive rating of 115+ crushes Green Bay’s porous defense, with pace and efficiency projecting 95+ in high-confidence sim runs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Kansas, aligning with sharp money and market movement toward a larger spread, making following the favorite the optimal mathematical play without contrarian value. Green Bay’s lack of firepower limits upset potential, while Kansas’s depth ensures control. Overall game scoring leans slightly under due to Kansas’s defensive efficiency and Green Bay’s low-possession style, projecting a 92-60 type outcome.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Kansas Jayhawks — simulation and metrics confirm the favorite’s edge in this mismatch.

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