South Dakota Coyotes vs Utah Tech Trailblazers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 08:16 PM EST

🏀 Matchup: South Dakota Coyotes vs Utah Tech Trailblazers on 2025-11-04

Game Times

• ET: 8:30 PM
• CT: 7:30 PM
• MT: 6:30 PM
• PT: 5:30 PM
• AKT: 4:30 PM
• HST: 2:30 PM

💰 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [South Dakota Coyotes / Spread / -2 at -110 / 51% / Simulation shows 51% cover rate for the -2 spread, supported by South Dakota’s home efficiency edge and Utah Tech’s road struggles, with line holding steady despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 164.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated total of 160.5 points falls below the line, driven by both teams’ defensive rebounding rates and slower tempo in recent non-conference games, favoring a lower-scoring affair.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [South Dakota Coyotes / Moneyline / -135 / 52% / 52% win probability from simulations aligns with home advantage and Utah Tech’s 13-game night loss streak, offering positive EV against the implied odds.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Dakota Coyotes | 52.0% |
| Win % for Utah Tech Trailblazers | 48.0% |
| Spread Cover % for South Dakota Coyotes (-2) | 51.0% |
| Over/Under Probability (162) | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 160.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (SD – Utah) | [-14.2, 14.8] |

💸 Public Bets

[65% South Dakota / 35% Utah Tech]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% South Dakota / 45% Utah Tech]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at South Dakota -2.5 but has moved to -2 across most books, indicating some sharp action on Utah Tech despite public favoritism toward the home team, with totals steady around 164.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on South Dakota spread / Simulations and adjusted efficiency metrics (KenPom O/D ratings) show a slight edge for the home team, with Utah Tech’s poor 3P% defense vulnerable but overall pace suggesting value in the current line.]

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: [Chase Forte / Over Points / 18.5 at -110 / 72% / Forte’s 21.0 PPG average in recent games exploits Utah Tech’s weak perimeter defense (allowing 35% from three), with high usage rate supporting the over based on offensive efficiency data.]
• Player Prop #2: [Paul Bruns / Over Assists / 3.5 at -115 / 68% / Bruns averages 4.2 assists at home, and South Dakota’s pick-and-roll frequency (top-150 tempo) matches up well against Utah Tech’s turnover-prone guard play, favoring the over.]
• Player Prop #3: [Matt Olsen / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -105 / 70% / Olsen’s 6.8 RPG drops to 5.2 on the road against strong rebounding teams like South Dakota (defensive rebound % 52%), with simulation projecting limited second-chance opportunities.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors South Dakota as the home favorite, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp interest in Utah Tech covering, though simulations confirm alignment with the favorite’s edge without strong reverse line movement to fade. Both teams show middling offensive ratings (South Dakota 105.2 AdjO, Utah Tech 98.7), paired with solid defenses, pointing to a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. Follow the public here as metrics and home splits do not justify a contrarian fade.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with South Dakota] — Simulations and market consensus highlight the home team’s 52% win probability as the optimal path, bolstered by Utah Tech’s historical struggles in similar spots.

Highlights unavailable for future events.