Washington St Cougars vs Idaho Vandals

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 08:20 PM EST

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Washington St Cougars / Spread / -7 at -112 / 55% Confidence / Simulation shows 54.2% cover rate for WSU, supported by strong home efficiency and Idaho’s poor road defense, with line stable amid public favoritism.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 154 at -105 / 56% Confidence / Average simulated total of 158.9 exceeds line, driven by WSU’s up-tempo offense (top-100 tempo) and both teams’ recent overs in 60% of games.
💰 Best Bet #3 Washington St Cougars / Moneyline / -315 / 70% Confidence / 69.3% win probability aligns with market, boosted by home advantage and Idaho’s 2-8 road record last season.

Washington St Cougars vs Idaho Vandals on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington St Cougars | 69.3% |
| Win % for Idaho Vandals | 30.7% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington St Cougars -7 | 54.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Idaho Vandals +7 | 45.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.9% / Under: 44.1% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 158.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24, 41] |

💸 Public Bets
Washington St Cougars 72% / Idaho Vandals 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Washington St Cougars 68% / Idaho Vandals 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at -6.5 for WSU, moved to -7 across books like BetOnline and FanDuel with steady action on favorite despite high public percentage; total steady at 154 from 153.5 opening.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on WSU spread, derived from simulation cover probability exceeding implied odds (52.4% at -112), reinforced by WSU’s adjusted efficiency edge (+12.5 per KenPom projections) over Idaho’s defensive weaknesses.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Myles Rice (WSU) / Over Points / 18.5 / -110 / 62% Confidence / Rice averages 19.2 PPG in home games with high usage (28%), facing Idaho’s weak perimeter defense allowing 38% from three; simulation favors overs in 65% of high-pace matchups.
Player Prop #2: Quinn Denning (Idaho) / Over Points / 14.5 / -105 / 58% Confidence / Denning hits 15.1 PPG against mid-major foes, with Idaho’s offense reliant on his scoring amid WSU’s average guard defense (1.12 PPP allowed); recent form shows overs in 7 of 10.
Player Prop #3: Isaac Jones (WSU) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 / -115 / 60% Confidence / Jones grabs 8.4 RPG at home, exploiting Idaho’s poor rebounding rate (28% defensive), supported by simulation’s 59% over hit rate in favorable frontcourt matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Washington State, aligning with money distribution and stable line movement, indicating no sharp resistance and supporting a follow on the favorite where metrics converge. Idaho’s road struggles and turnover-prone offense (18% rate) limit upset potential, while WSU’s home scoring efficiency suggests a moderate-paced game leaning over the total. Overall, the matchup projects as a comfortable WSU win with combined scoring above average due to both teams’ mid-range shooting tendencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Washington St Cougars — simulation and market data confirm 69% win probability with positive EV on key lines.

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