St Louis Blues vs Edmonton Oilers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-03 08:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 05:21 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [St Louis Blues / Spread / +1.5 at -220 / 66% / Blues cover in 66% of simulations due to Edmonton’s inconsistent road scoring against structured defenses, with recent Blues home games showing resilience despite skid.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -125 / 53% / Average simulated goals at 5.85 falls below line, supported by both teams’ recent lower-scoring outings and Edmonton’s back-to-back schedule limiting offensive output.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Edmonton Oilers / Moneyline / -135 / 61% / Oilers hold 61% win probability from simulations, backed by superior xGF metrics and McDavid/Draisaitl’s dominance despite minor injuries.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St Louis Blues | 39.0% |
| Win % for Edmonton Oilers | 61.0% |
| Spread Cover % for St Louis Blues (+1.5) | 66.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Edmonton Oilers (-1.5) | 34.0% |
| Over/Under Probability (6.5) | Over: 47.0% / Under: 53.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.85 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Oilers – Blues) | [0.5, 1.1] |

🏒 Matchup: St Louis Blues vs Edmonton Oilers on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 8:30 PM
CT: 7:30 PM
MT: 6:30 PM
PT: 5:30 PM
AKT: 4:30 PM
HST: 2:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[30% / 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Oilers opened at -135 ML and moved to -145 amid public backing, while total dipped from 6.5 to 6 at some books; puck line stable with Blues +1.5 holding firm despite 70% public on Edmonton.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Blues +1.5, driven by simulation cover rate and sharp interest in home underdog offsetting public fade potential; no strong EV on ML due to consensus pricing.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan Binnington / Under Saves / 27.5 at -110 / 68% / Binnington’s recent home starts average 24 saves against high-shot teams like Edmonton, with Blues’ improved defensive zone starts limiting exposure per xGA metrics.
Player Prop #2: Connor McDavid / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -115 / 72% / McDavid’s usage rate spikes on the road (4.2 SOG/game last 10), exploiting Blues’ weak high-danger defense as seen in recent opponents’ shot advantages.
Player Prop #3: Robert Thomas / Over Points / 0.5 at +120 / 65% / Thomas returns from questionable status with top-line role, projecting multi-point upside against Edmonton’s average PK (78%) based on his 1.2 points/60 at even strength.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Oilers at 70%, aligning with money distribution but diverging from sharp action on the Blues as home underdog, justified by Edmonton’s travel fatigue in a back-to-back and Blues’ 6th-ranked xGF% over the last two weeks. Following the public on Edmonton ML carries neutral EV, but fading on the spread offers value given simulation edges and line stability. Overall game scoring leans low, with both offenses regressing—Blues allowing 3.1 GA in losses, Oilers scoring 2.8 on road—favoring under amid Binnington’s expected start.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on St Louis Blues +1.5 — mathematical probability supports cover with positive EV from contextual metrics like injuries (Thomas questionable, Neighbors out for STL; Hyman out for EDM) and rest disparity.

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