Bucknell Bison vs Delaware Blue Hens

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:40 PM EST

Bucknell Bison vs Delaware Blue Hens on 2025-11-03

Game Times

• ET: 7:00 PM
• CT: 6:00 PM
• MT: 5:00 PM
• PT: 4:00 PM
• AKT: 3:00 PM
• HST: 1:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Bucknell Bison / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 52% / Simulation shows 51.9% cover rate aligning closely with implied odds, supported by home advantage and recent form edges in efficiency ratings.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 50% / Average simulated total of 148.7 points indicates slight lean over, driven by combined offensive efficiencies and moderate tempo matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Bucknell Bison / Moneyline / -135 / 58% / 57.9% win probability from Monte Carlo exceeds implied 57.5%, factoring in Bucknell’s stronger adjusted offensive rating against Delaware’s defense.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Bucknell Bison | 57.9% |
| Win % for Delaware Blue Hens | 42.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Bucknell Bison | 51.9% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.4% / Under: 49.6% |
| Average Total Points | 148.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-30.1, 36.4] |

💸 Public Bets
Bucknell 62% / Delaware 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Bucknell 58% / Delaware 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at -2.5 across major books, opening similarly with minimal shift indicating consensus on Bucknell’s edge.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1.5% on Bucknell spread; simulation probabilities show modest value against vig, bolstered by home-court factors and no major injuries reported.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Josh Baldwin (Bucknell) / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 65% / Baldwin’s 16.2 PPG average in recent games and high usage rate (28%) exploit Delaware’s weaker perimeter defense, allowing 15.8 PPG to guards.
• Player Prop #2: Gerald Drumgoole (Delaware) / Under Rebounds / 5.5 at -110 / 62% / Drumgoole averages 4.8 rebounds away, facing Bucknell’s strong offensive rebounding (32% rate) that limits second-chance opportunities.
• Player Prop #3: Ian Mathers (Bucknell) / Over Assists / 3.5 at -115 / 58% / Mathers’ 4.1 APG in home games aligns with Delaware’s turnover-prone defense (18% forced), supporting playmaking in a controlled tempo.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Bucknell as the home favorite, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow-the-public approach optimal without contrarian value. The matchup projects moderate scoring, with both teams’ defensive efficiencies suggesting the total stays near the line but slightly favors over based on pace and rebounding trends. No key injuries alter the outlook, emphasizing Bucknell’s home splits (12-4 last season) over Delaware’s road challenges.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Bucknell — mathematical probabilities confirm the favorite’s edge in win and cover scenarios.

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