Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs LIU Sharks

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:46 PM EST

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs LIU Sharks on 2025-11-04

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Notre Dame 78% / LIU Sharks 22%

💰 Money Distribution
Notre Dame 65% / LIU Sharks 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Spread opened at -14.5 and moved to -15.5 with balanced action; total steady at 135.5 despite early over bets.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Notre Dame spread cover based on simulation alignment and home dominance; +4.5% EV on over from tempo mismatch.

Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish / Spread / -15.5 at -110 / 52% / Notre Dame’s superior efficiency and home-court edge project a 16-point average margin, covering in over half of simulations against a weaker LIU squad.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 135.5 at -110 / 61% / Both teams’ preseason tempos suggest a faster pace, with Notre Dame’s offense pushing the average total to 140 in models, favoring the over amid limited defensive depth for LIU.
💰 Best Bet #3 LIU Sharks / Moneyline / +1200 / 18% / Simulations show LIU’s upset potential at 17.8%, offering strong value against heavily juiced odds implying just 7-8% chance, driven by variance in early-season play.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 82.2% |
| Win % for LIU Sharks | 17.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-15.5) | 51.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 61.0% / Under: 39.0% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-16.7, 49.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Markus Burton / Over Points / 19.5 at -115 / 68% / Burton’s high usage rate (28%) and LIU’s weak perimeter defense (allowed 35% from three last season) support exceeding his average of 18.2 points in favorable matchups.
– Player Prop #2: Tae Cedeno / Over Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 72% / As ND’s primary playmaker, Cedeno averages 4.8 assists with LIU surrendering 14.5 per game to opposing guards, boosted by home tempo.
– Player Prop #3: Stephen Smith (LIU) / Under Points / 12.5 at -105 / 65% / Smith’s scoring dips against top defenses like ND’s (top-100 rebounding rate), projecting under his 13.1 average in road openers with limited possessions.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Notre Dame on the spread, aligning with money distribution but showing divergence that hints at sharp interest in LIU’s moneyline value due to simulation upset probability exceeding implied odds. Following the public on the spread makes sense mathematically given the 51.5% cover rate, though fading on the moneyline offers contrarian EV. The game projects as moderately high-scoring, with Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency (projected 110+ KenPom) overwhelming LIU’s defense, pushing totals over amid early-season rust.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Notre Dame -15.5 — simulation and market consensus confirm the edge despite slight variance risks.

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