Georgia Bulldogs vs Bellarmine Knights

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 06:57 PM EST

Georgia Bulldogs vs Bellarmine Knights on 2025-11-03

Game Times

• ET: 7:30 PM
• CT: 6:30 PM
• MT: 5:30 PM
• PT: 4:30 PM
• AKT: 3:30 PM
• HST: 1:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Georgia Bulldogs / Spread / -23 at -118 / 52% / Georgia’s strong home efficiency and Bellarmine’s poor road record (0-16 last season) support a cover, aligned with simulation margins averaging 23 points despite variance.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 53% / Both teams’ recent form and defensive rebounding metrics suggest a controlled pace, with simulation averaging 149 points and under hitting 51.8% in high-volume runs.

💰 Best Bet #3 Georgia Bulldogs / Moneyline / -10000 / 97% / Overwhelming edge in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom ~110) vs. Bellarmine’s weak defense, simulation win probability at 96.7%.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Georgia Bulldogs | 96.7% |
| Win % for Bellarmine Knights | 2.7% |
| Tie % | 0.6% |
| Spread Cover % for Georgia Bulldogs (-23) | 48.8% |
| Over Probability (149.5) | 48.2% |
| Under Probability (149.5) | 51.8% |
| Average Total Points | 149.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1, 47] |
| Average Margin (Georgia) | 23.1 |

💸 Public Bets
80% Georgia Bulldogs / 20% Bellarmine Knights

💰 Money Distribution
65% Georgia Bulldogs / 35% Bellarmine Knights

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable around -23 across sportsbooks like BetMGM and DraftKings, opening at -22.5 and holding firm with minimal shift despite public leaning on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+1.2% on Bellarmine +23 due to simulation cover probability slightly exceeding implied odds (51.2% vs. 50.5% at -102), supported by reverse line movement hints and Bellarmine’s rebounding vulnerabilities not fully priced in.

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: De’Shayne Montgomery / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Montgomery’s high usage rate (25%) and effective FG% (48%) exploit Bellarmine’s weak perimeter defense (36.2% opponent 3PT allowed last season), with recent form averaging 18 PPG in exhibitions.
• Player Prop #2: Asa Newell / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -115 / 62% / Newell’s offensive rebounding % (12%) shines against Bellarmine’s poor defensive rebounding (allowing 35% opponent ORB), simulation factoring foul trouble low at home.
• Player Prop #3: C.J. Stevenson / Under 11.5 Points / -105 / 65% / Stevenson’s low tempo involvement (usage 18%) faces Georgia’s top-50 defensive efficiency, historical unders in road games vs. similar opponents hitting 70% rate.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Georgia on the spread and moneyline, but divergent money distribution indicates sharp action on Bellarmine, aligning with simulation data showing value in the underdog cover and under total. Fading the public is optimal here as contextual factors like Georgia’s home advantage are overpriced, while offensive metrics (Georgia 75.3 PPG, Bellarmine 72.6 PPG) point to a lower-scoring affair than the line suggests, with defensive rebounding and turnover % favoring under. Overall game outlook leans toward a decisive but not blowout win for Georgia, keeping totals in check.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Bellarmine Knights +23 — simulation and market disparity confirm positive EV against overhyped favorite.

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