DePaul Blue Demons vs Chicago St Cougars

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-03 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-03 07:04 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Chicago St Cougars / Spread / +24.5 at -108 / 50% / Simulation indicates near-even cover probability against the heavy favorite line, with DePaul’s projected margin falling short of 24.5 in half the outcomes due to variance in defensive rebounding and turnover rates.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 50% / Both teams’ adjusted defensive efficiencies suggest controlled pace early in the season, with Chicago State’s low tempo and DePaul’s focus on efficiency leading to totals below the line in simulations.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago St Cougars / Moneyline / +2200 / 8% / Underdog value emerges from the simulation’s 7.7% upset chance exceeding the implied probability, supported by potential overreaction to DePaul’s ranking without accounting for Chicago State’s rebounding edge.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for DePaul Blue Demons | 92.3% |
| Win % for Chicago St Cougars | 7.7% |
| Spread Cover % for DePaul Blue Demons | 49.7% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.9% / Under: 50.1% |
| Average Total Points | 143.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [20.5, 28.5] |

🏀 Matchup: DePaul Blue Demons vs Chicago St Cougars on 2025-11-03

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[85% DePaul / 15% Chicago St]

💰 Money Distribution

[75% DePaul / 25% Chicago St]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -24 and has held steady at -24.5 across major books, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on DePaul, indicating possible sharp resistance on the underdog side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Chicago St +24.5] — Simulation-derived cover probability of 50.3% exceeds the -108 implied 51.9%, creating positive EV when factoring in Chicago State’s defensive rebounding percentage and DePaul’s occasional turnover issues in home openers.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: [Jahseon Robertson (Chicago St) / Over Points / 12.5 at -110 / 72% / Robertson’s usage rate exceeds 25% in limited minutes, and against DePaul’s perimeter defense allowing 1.15 PPP, his scoring average in exhibitions supports clearing this line based on effective FG% trends.]

Player Prop #2: [Tommy Carmody (DePaul) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -112 / 68% / Carmody’s 28% defensive rebound rate pairs well against Chicago State’s poor offensive rebounding (22%), with simulations showing DePaul controlling boards in 65% of possessions.]

Player Prop #3: [Chris Ledbetter (DePaul) / Under Assists / 3.5 at -108 / 75% / Ledbetter’s assist rate drops to 12% in high-possession games, and Chicago State’s press limits transition opportunities, aligning with under hits in 70% of similar matchups per turnover-forcing data.]

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors DePaul as the ranked team in a home opener, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp action on Chicago State, aligning with the simulation’s tighter margin projection. Following the underdog provides the optimal edge here, as the line overvalues DePaul’s efficiency without recent form data. Overall game scoring outlook leans toward the under, given both squads’ emphasis on defensive tempo and low turnover margins early in the season.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Chicago St Cougars] — Mathematical probability favors the underdog cover and moneyline upset potential based on simulation convergence and market divergence.

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