Kansas St Wildcats vs UNC Greensboro Spartans

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-04 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-04 05:14 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [UNC Greensboro Spartans / +19 / -110 / 68% / Simulation projects Kansas State margin around 10 points, creating value on the underdog cover as the line has moved too far amid public favoritism toward the home team.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 65% / Both teams feature efficient offenses in preseason metrics with a projected average of 150 points, exceeding the line based on tempo and defensive weaknesses in exhibition play.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Kansas St Wildcats / Moneyline / -2500 / 76% / Strong home advantage and superior talent depth align with simulation win probability, though juice limits EV compared to spread alternatives.]

Kansas St Wildcats vs UNC Greensboro Spartans on 2025-11-04

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Kansas St Wildcats 82% / UNC Greensboro Spartans 18%

💰 Money Distribution
Kansas St Wildcats 75% / UNC Greensboro Spartans 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Spread opened at -14.5 and moved to -16.5 on FanDuel amid heavy action on the favorite, indicating sustained support for Kansas State despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Over 143, driven by projected average total of 150 from efficiency matchups and tempo, where implied probability (52.4%) undervalues the 68.5% simulation over likelihood.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kansas St Wildcats | 76.0% |
| Win % for UNC Greensboro Spartans | 21.9% |
| Spread Cover % for Kansas St Wildcats (-15.5) | 34.5% |
| Over/Under Probability (143) | Over: 68.5% / Under: 31.5% |
| Average Total Points | 150.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [9.8, 10.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: P.J. Haggerty / Over Points / 18.5 / -115 / 72% / As a transfer All-American making his debut, Haggerty’s high usage rate and scoring efficiency in prior seasons (averaging 22+ PPG) project well against UNCG’s perimeter defense allowing 35% from three.

Player Prop #2: David N’Guessan / Over Rebounds / 8.5 / -110 / 70% / KSU’s leading rebounder returns with strong board presence (9.5 RPG last season), facing a UNCG frontcourt that struggled in exhibitions, supporting the over in a fast-paced opener.

Player Prop #3: Keyshawn Hall / Under Points / 12.5 / -105 / 68% / UNCG’s guard faces KSU’s stout defense (top-50 in opponent FG% last year), with Hall’s scoring dipping in road games and limited possessions against superior athleticism.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Kansas State, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward the favorite, suggesting no strong sharp resistance or need to fade. However, the simulation indicates the spread has overadjusted, creating value on the underdog cover while the total offers positive EV on the over due to offensive efficiencies. Overall game scoring projects moderately high, with both teams’ tempos and defensive lapses pointing to a total exceeding 148.5.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Kansas St Wildcats — simulation win probability and market consensus support the favorite, though best value lies in totals and underdog spread for mathematical edges.

Highlights unavailable for future events.