NBA

Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-04 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-04 05:01 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Philadelphia 76ers / Spread / +1.5 at -110 / 55% / Simulation cover rate favors 76ers by 52.7% with Bulls missing White and Dosunmu questionable, offsetting home edge; divergent money on road team adds value against public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 239.5 at -106 / 97% / Both teams’ defensive ratings in current season (Bulls 108.2 allowed, 76ers 106.5) and low pace (Bulls 98.1, 76ers 97.4) project avg total of 217.7 per sim, driven by injuries limiting scoring punch.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Chicago Bulls / Moneyline / -122 / 52% / Slight sim edge at 51% win probability aligns with home advantage and 5-1 form, though close matchup with 76ers’ Embiid healthy tempers upside.]

🏀 Matchup: Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers on 2025-11-04

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Bulls 55% / 76ers 45%

💰 Money Distribution

Bulls 48% / 76ers 52%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Bulls -2 and steadied at -1.5 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel; slight buyback on 76ers despite public lean, indicating sharp interest in underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on 76ers +1.5; simulation cover rates and injury impacts (White out, Dosunmu questionable vs. George out) support value against implied 52.4% probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Chicago Bulls | 51.0% |
| Win % for Philadelphia 76ers | 49.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Chicago Bulls -1.5 | 47.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 3.0% / Under: 97.0% |
| Average Total Points | 217.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 23] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Joel Embiid / Over Points / 28.5 at -115 / 72% / Embiid’s current season usage (32.1%) and efficiency (TS% 62.4) vs. Bulls’ weak interior defense (allowing 54.2 pts in paint) project 30+ in healthy return, hitting over in 7 of last 10.

Player Prop #2: Zach LaVine / Under Points / 24.5 at -110 / 68% / LaVine’s on/off minus (-4.2 without White) and 76ers’ top-5 perimeter D (opp eFG% 51.2) cap output at 22.1 avg sans key guard; under in 6 of 8 similar spots.

Player Prop #3: Tyrese Maxey / Over Assists / 6.5 at -112 / 70% / Maxey’s playmaking surges (7.2 APG last 5) with McCain debut drawing help, exploiting Bulls’ turnover-forcing D (opp TO% 14.1) for easy dimes; over in 70% of road games vs. mid-tier pace teams.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment on the Bulls aligns loosely with their home edge but diverges from money flow toward the 76ers, where sharp action via line buyback and sim metrics (52.7% cover) justify fading the public on the spread. Injuries tilt the scales—Bulls’ backcourt woes vs. Philly’s frontcourt strength with Embiid—while overall scoring outlook points low, with defensive efficiencies and pace projecting well under the total line. Following sharp money on the underdog side optimizes EV in this tight contest.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on 76ers +1.5 — simulation and injury data confirm the mathematical probability favors the road cover despite public favoritism toward Chicago.

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