Calgary Flames vs Columbus Blue Jackets

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-05 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:47 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Columbus Blue Jackets / +1.5 / -250 / 72% / Columbus has covered the puck line in 65% of road games this season, with Calgary struggling to win by multiple goals at home amid defensive lapses.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6 at -107 / 55% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for goals per game, with recent trends showing unders in 6 of Calgary’s last 8 and Columbus’ strong penalty kill limiting high-danger chances.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Calgary Flames / Moneyline / -115 / 54% / Home-ice advantage and superior xGF metrics give Calgary a slight edge, supported by line stability and sharp money alignment.]

Calgary Flames vs Columbus Blue Jackets on 2025-11-05

Game Times
ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[58% / 42%]

💰 Money Distribution
[62% / 38%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Calgary -110 ML and has ticked to -115 with balanced action; total steady at 6 despite minor sharp play on under.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Calgary ML; implied probability of 53% vs. model estimate of 55.5%, bolstered by home form and Columbus’ road fatigue.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 52% |
| Win % for Columbus Blue Jackets | 48% |
| Spread Cover % for Calgary Flames -1.5 | 28% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Nazem Kadri / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -275 / 78% / Kadri averages 3.2 SOG per game this season, exceeding in 70% of home matchups against leaky defenses like Columbus’ (allowing 32 SOG/game).
– Player Prop #2: Kirill Marchenko / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -136 / 65% / Marchenko’s 3.1 SOG average rises to 3.5 on the road; Calgary’s aggressive forecheck creates 28+ shots against, favoring his volume.
– Player Prop #3: Zach Werenski / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at +115 / 62% / Werenski leads Blue Jackets D with 3.8 SOG/game, hitting over in 60% vs. Pacific teams; Calgary’s PP opportunities boost his point production and shots.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Calgary as the home favorite, aligning with sharp money on the ML amid stable lines and no major reverse movement. Following the public makes sense here, as EV edges favor the Flames without contrarian signals from injuries or trends. Overall scoring outlook points low, with both teams’ defensive metrics (xGA under 2.8/60) and goalie saves (Wolf .915 SV%, Greaves .905) suggesting a tight, under-leaning contest.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Calgary Flames]

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