Air Force vs New Mexico

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:29 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [New Mexico / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / New Mexico’s four-game win streak and Air Force’s key QB injury create value on the spread, with recent form showing the Lobos covering in three of last four road games]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 51.5 at -110 / 52% / Both defenses rank top-60 in yards allowed per game this season, with Air Force’s option offense hampered by injury leading to a projected low-scoring affair averaging under 50 points in simulations]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New Mexico / Moneyline / -165 / 58% / Lobos hold edge in SP+ ratings and explosive play rate, bolstered by home underdog fade against injured Falcons]

🏈 Matchup: Air Force vs New Mexico on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Air Force | 42.0% |
| Win % for New Mexico | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Air Force | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 51.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.5, 15.2] |

💸 Public Bets

[New Mexico 68% / Air Force 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[New Mexico 72% / Air Force 28%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at New Mexico -2.5 but moved to -3.5 amid sharp action on the Lobos following Air Force QB injury news, despite heavy public backing on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on New Mexico spread / Implied probability undervalues Lobos’ 58% win chance against an injured Air Force squad, with success rate metrics showing New Mexico’s edge in third-down conversions at 45% vs. Falcons’ 35% this season]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors New Mexico, aligning with sharp money and line movement toward the Lobos, making a follow play optimal as EV supports the favorite without contrarian signals. Air Force’s season-ending QB injury tilts the matchup further, reducing their explosive play rate by an estimated 25%. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with both teams’ defenses allowing under 28 points per game on average and simulations projecting totals below 52 in 52% of runs.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with New Mexico] — Mathematical probability favors the Lobos at 58% win rate, confirmed by injury impact and defensive metrics.

Highlights unavailable.