Air Force vs Northern Colorado

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-26 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-26 01:49 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Air Force / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Home court edge and defensive efficiency favor covering the narrow line against a middling Northern Colorado offense]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ adjusted defensive ratings and slower tempos point to a controlled, lower-scoring affair]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Northern Colorado / Moneyline / +120 / 48% / Underdog value emerges from recent form and potential for upset in non-conference matchup]

Air Force vs Northern Colorado on 2025-11-26

Game Times

ET: 06:00 PM
CT: 05:00 PM
MT: 04:00 PM
PT: 03:00 PM
AKT: 02:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

Public Bets

[Air Force 65% / Northern Colorado 35%]

💸 Public Bets

Air Force 65% / Northern Colorado 35%

💰 Money Distribution

Air Force 45% / Northern Colorado 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Air Force -3 but moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating sharp money on the underdog

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Northern Colorado moneyline; reverse line movement and money percentage disparity suggest value against public overreaction to Air Force’s home status

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Air Force | 55.0% |
| Win % for Northern Colorado | 45.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Air Force | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 144.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 12.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Beau Brisco (Air Force) / Over Points / 12.5 at -115 / 72% / Brisco’s 15.2 PPG average against similar defenses, with high usage in home games and no key injuries limiting touches
Player Prop #2: Saint Thomas (Northern Colorado) / Over Points / 20.5 at -110 / 68% / Thomas leads team with 22.1 PPG, exploiting Air Force’s weaker perimeter D in transition-heavy matchups
Player Prop #3: Caleb Furst (Air Force) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -120 / 70% / Furst’s 7.8 RPG on offensive glass, boosted by home rebounding advantage against Northern Colorado’s average frontcourt

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Air Force, but divergent money flow and reverse line movement signal sharp action on Northern Colorado, making a fade of the public optimal for value. Both teams show solid defensive efficiencies in early season play, with Air Force’s home splits adding slight edge, but overall matchup projects as low-scoring due to controlled paces and limited explosive offenses. Contextual factors like no major injuries support following the mathematical lean toward the underdog.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Northern Colorado — reverse line movement and money disparity outweigh public percentage in this non-conference tilt with positive EV.

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