NCAAB
Air Force vs 
San Jose State
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 9:00 PM ET • 8:00 PM CT • 7:00 PM MT • 6:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:28 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Air Force Falcons / +6.5 / -106 / 58% / Slight money disparity on home dog (55%) despite even public bets signals sharp action; altitude home edge and Air Force slow pace aids cover
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 141.5 / -110 / 56% / Both teams lean low-scoring in recent trends (SJSU last game 143 total), public/money 55-59% under, defensive metrics favor low output
💰 Best Bet #3 San José St Spartans / Moneyline / -300 / 72% / Model win probability exceeds implied (75%) but holds edge in convergence of form and matchup
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Air Force Falcons | 28% |
| Win % for San José St Spartans | 72% |
| Spread Cover % for Air Force Falcons | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 141.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-26, 15] |
🏀 Matchup: Air Force Falcons vs San José St Spartans on 2026-02-25
💸 Public Bets
Air Force 50% / San José St 50%
💰 Money Distribution
Air Force 55% / San José St 45%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (+6.5 to +7 consensus)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Air Force +6.5; model cover exceeds implied probability at current lines
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Beau Brungardt (Air Force) / Over 11.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Averages 13.2 PPG in home games, favorable matchup vs SJSU weak perimeter D allowing 25% opponent 3P
Player Prop #2: Omari Moore (San José St) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Leads team at 17.8 PPG, 65% hit rate last 10, Air Force allows 78 PPG to guards
Player Prop #3: Will Ellis (San José St) / Over 7.5 Rebounds / -112 / 70% / 8.4 RPG average, exploits Air Force poor offensive rebounding (28% rate)
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors San José St ML (80%) but spread bets even with money leaning Air Force +6.5, indicating sharp resistance to favorite; fade public optimal on spread due to RLM signals and home altitude. Overall game projects low-scoring with combined defensive efficiencies supporting under 141.5. Contextual home edge for Air Force boosts cover likelihood despite underdog status.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on San José St — Air Force +6.5 offers best mathematical edge.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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