Air Force vs Utah State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-06 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-06 11:19 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Utah State / Spread / -21.5 at -110 / 55% / Utah State’s dominant 12-1 record and Air Force’s struggles at 3-11 create a clear edge, with simulation showing strong cover probability despite the large line]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit defensive tendencies in recent games, with Air Force’s low-scoring offense and Utah State’s controlled pace favoring a lower total per sim data]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Utah State / Moneyline / -2500 / 92% / Overwhelming win probability from form disparity and home advantage, aligning with sharp consensus]

🏀 Matchup: Air Force vs Utah State on 2026-01-06

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Utah State 85% / Air Force 15%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Utah State 75% / Air Force 25%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -20.5 and moved to -21.5 with heavy action on Utah State, indicating sustained confidence in the favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Utah State spread / Consensus from sims and recent form shows positive EV, with Utah State’s efficiency ratings far superior to Air Force’s poor defensive metrics.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Air Force | 8% |
| Win % for Utah State | 92% |
| Spread Cover % for Air Force (+21.5) | 45% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 138.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.5, 39.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Utah State, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making following the public the optimal approach rather than fading. Utah State’s offensive efficiency and Air Force’s turnover-prone defense support a comfortable win, while the overall game outlook leans toward moderate scoring limited by Air Force’s inefficiency.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Utah State / No clear edge]

Highlights unavailable.