Anaheim Ducks vs New Jersey Devils

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-02 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-02 11:25 AM EST

Anaheim Ducks vs New Jersey Devils on 2025-11-02

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Ducks / Spread / +1.5 at -225 / 78% / Simulation shows strong cover probability in a projected close contest, with NHL variance favoring the underdog to stay within one goal.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 5.90 fall below the line, supported by both teams’ defensive metrics and recent low-scoring trends.
💰 Best Bet #3 New Jersey Devils / Moneyline / -125 / 55% / Devils hold a slight edge in win probability, aligning with form and road performance against a rebuilding Ducks squad.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 45.2% |
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 54.8% |
| Puck Line Cover % for Anaheim Ducks +1.5 | 78.5% |
| Puck Line Cover % for New Jersey Devils -1.5 | 21.5% |
| Over 6.5 Probability | 48.3% |
| Under 6.5 Probability | 51.7% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.90 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Ducks – Devils) | [-3.0, 2.0] |

💸 Public Bets
Devils 68% / Ducks 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Devils 58% / Ducks 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
The Devils’ moneyline opened at -120 and has steadied around -125 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel, with no significant reverse movement despite public leaning; puck line for Ducks +1.5 holds firm at -225, indicating stability in a low-volume early-season matchup.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Ducks +1.5, driven by simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability; totals show marginal +0.8% EV on under, as xGA metrics for both teams suggest controlled scoring.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jack Hughes / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -120 / 72% / Hughes averages 4.2 SOG recently with high usage against Ducks’ weak high-danger defense, projecting 4.7 in simulations.
Player Prop #2: Nico Hischier / Over Assists / 0.5 at +110 / 68% / Hischier’s playmaking shines on the road (0.8 A/60), boosted by power-play opportunities versus Anaheim’s middling PK at 78%.
Player Prop #3: Leo Carlsson / Under Points / 0.5 at -130 / 65% / Carlsson’s rookie production regresses against Devils’ stout Corsi defense (55% CF), with low expected goals in even-strength matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Devils on the moneyline, but money distribution shows sharper action splitting toward the Ducks’ side, creating divergence that supports value on the puck line. Following the public on Devils ML aligns with simulation win probability, though fading on the spread offers better EV due to close projected margins. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with both offenses hampered by injuries and defensive zone starts favoring unders based on recent xGF/xGA trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Devils moneyline — simulation and market consensus point to a narrow road win probability exceeding implied odds.

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