Anaheim Ducks vs Tampa Bay Lightning

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-31 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-31 08:10 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Anaheim Ducks / +1.5 / -180 / 75% / Ducks show strong defensive metrics with xGA/60 at 2.9, covering in 70% of sims against Lightning’s road splits; injuries to Lightning’s Hedman and Cernak weaken their offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 55% / Combined xGF suggests 5.9 avg goals, but flipped recommendation per historical trends favoring overs in similar matchups despite sim leaning under.

💰 Best Bet #3 Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -136 / 60% / Lightning’s superior xGF/60 (3.2) and record (22-13-3) give edge, though public heavy action tempers value.

Anaheim Ducks vs Tampa Bay Lightning on 2025-12-31

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Lightning 68% / Ducks 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Lightning 52% / Ducks 48%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Lightning -130 ML, moved to -136 with 68% public on favorite, indicating some sharp resistance on Ducks side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Ducks +1.5, driven by RLM against public and Lightning injuries reducing their puck-line success rate to 45% on road.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 42% |
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Anaheim Ducks +1.5 | 72% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nikita Kucherov / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -110 / 70% / Kucherov averages 4.1 SOG/game in 2025, facing Ducks’ weak HD defense allowing 12.5 shots/60 to top wingers.

Player Prop #2: Brayden Point / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 65% / Point has points in 75% of recent games, exploiting Ducks’ PK at 78% efficiency with Lightning PP at 25%.

Player Prop #3: Leo Carlsson / Under 2.5 SOG / 2.5 at -115 / 75% / Carlsson limited to 2.2 SOG avg vs elite defenses like Lightning’s, with low usage in even-strength matchups.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Lightning, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement suggest sharp action on the Ducks, supported by Tampa’s key injuries like Hedman and Cernak out, weakening their blue line. Math aligns with fading the public here, as EV edges favor Ducks covering. Game scoring outlook points to a moderate total around 5.8 goals, with defensive edges for both but Lightning’s offense pushing potential for over despite sim lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Ducks +1.5 — Highest probability based on sim cover rate and injury-adjusted metrics.

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