Anaheim Ducks vs Vegas Golden Knights

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-22 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:07 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Anaheim Ducks / Spread / +1.5 at -180 / 65% / Ducks cover in 65% of simulations due to Knights’ key injuries like Stone and Karlsson, limiting Vegas offensive depth against Anaheim’s home defense.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 5.4 fall below line, with both teams’ recent form showing low-scoring trends and goalie stability despite Vegas’ Hill out.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -130 / 60% / Knights hold 60% win probability in sims, bolstered by strong road form and Eichel’s production against depleted Ducks roster.]

Anaheim Ducks vs Vegas Golden Knights on 2025-11-22

Game Times
ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Anaheim 40% / Vegas 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Anaheim 30% / Vegas 70%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Vegas -130 since open, with no significant RLM despite public lean on favorite; total held at 6.5 amid injury news.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Ducks +1.5; sim convergence and injury impacts create value against public favorite bias, though Knights ML shows slight edge at +2%.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 35% |
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 60% |
| Spread Cover % for Anaheim Ducks +1.5 | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, +1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jack Eichel / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 72% / Eichel’s high usage rate (top-line minutes, power play) and 1.2 points per game average in current season exploit Ducks’ weakened defense without Granlund.
Player Prop #2: Mason McTavish / Over 2.5 Shots / +105 / 68% / McTavish averages 3.1 shots recently, facing Knights’ injury-depleted blue line (no Karlsson), boosting shot volume in home matchup.
Player Prop #3: Tomas Hertl / Under 0.5 Goals / -150 / 75% / Hertl’s goal rate drops to 0.3 per game against strong home defenses like Anaheim’s, with sims showing low conversion in even-strength play.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Knights as favorites, supported by Vegas’s road efficiency, but mathematical edges emerge on Ducks coverage due to key absences like Stone and Hill impacting scoring. Follow the public on moneyline for reliability, while fading slightly on spread value. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with defensive metrics and injuries capping totals below 6.5 goals.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Vegas Golden Knights] — sims confirm 60% win probability aligns with market consensus and current season form.

Highlights unavailable.