Arizona State vs Kansas State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-10 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-10 12:27 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Kansas State / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Kansas State benefits from superior adjusted defensive efficiency and home-court advantage against an Arizona State team struggling on the road in recent outings.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 55% / Both squads exhibit moderate tempos with offensive efficiencies that project above the line, supported by recent trends of combined scoring exceeding 140 in similar matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Kansas State / Moneyline / -190 / 62% / Simulation aligns with Kansas State’s stronger overall metrics and historical dominance in Big 12 play, offering value despite the juice.

Arizona State vs Kansas State on 2026-01-10

Game Times

ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

Kansas State 70% / Arizona State 30%

💰 Money Distribution

Kansas State 60% / Arizona State 40%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Kansas State -3 but has moved to -4.5 amid steady action on the favorite, indicating growing consensus without significant sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Kansas State spread, derived from simulation probabilities exceeding implied odds and supportive efficiency differentials in the current 2026 season.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arizona State | 38.2% |
| Win % for Kansas State | 61.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Kansas State | 55.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 140.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 18.7] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: David N’Guessan / Over Points / 12.5 at -115 / 72% / N’Guessan averages 13.8 points per game in 2026 with high usage against weaker interior defenses like Arizona State’s, who allow 15+ to forwards recently.

Player Prop #2: Frankie Collins / Under Assists / 4.5 at -110 / 68% / Collins’ assist numbers drop on the road versus Kansas State’s stout perimeter defense, hitting under in 4 of last 5 away games with limited ball-handling opportunities.

Player Prop #3: Max Jones / Over Rebounds / 5.5 at -120 / 70% / Jones grabs 6.2 boards per contest at home, exploiting Arizona State’s poor defensive rebounding rate (68%) in the current season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans heavily toward Kansas State, aligning with money distribution and line movement, suggesting no strong fade opportunity as sharp action appears supportive. Mathematical edges favor the favorite due to efficiency advantages and home factors. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-to-high total, with both offenses capable of pushing past the line against middling defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Kansas State — simulation and metrics confirm the highest probability of success for the home team in this matchup.

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