Arizona vs Kansas State

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:57 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Arizona / Spread / -20.5 at -110 / 55% / Arizona’s dominant form with nine straight wins by 19+ points and home advantage against a Kansas State team struggling as a large underdog align with the model’s cover probability, supported by sharp money holding the line steady.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ adjusted efficiencies suggest a moderate-paced game with Arizona’s high-scoring offense pushing toward the over, despite Kansas State’s defensive rebounding; recent trends show combined averages exceeding 150 points in similar matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Arizona / Moneyline / -2500 / 92% / Overwhelming win probability from simulations and metrics like KenPom ratings favor the top-ranked Wildcats decisively at home, with minimal upset risk against an outmatched Kansas State.]

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Arizona vs Kansas State on 2026-01-07

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Arizona 82% / Kansas State 18%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Arizona 75% / Kansas State 25%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -18.5 and moved to -20.5 with steady action on Arizona, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite heavy public backing; no significant reverse movement observed.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Arizona spread / Implied probabilities from odds undervalue Arizona’s 92% win chance based on current season efficiencies and home splits, creating positive EV after adjusting for Kansas State’s poor road performance.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Abdi Bashir Jr. / Over Made Threes / 1.5 at -120 / 65% / Bashir’s recent 2.2 threes per game against top defenses, combined with Arizona’s perimeter vulnerabilities, supports the over; Kansas State’s pace allows for 15+ attempts in favorable matchups.

Player Prop #2: Caleb Love / Over Points / 22.5 at -110 / 70% / Love averages 24.1 points in home games this season with high usage (28%) and efficient shooting (48% eFG) against Big 12 foes; Kansas State’s weak interior defense inflates scoring opportunities.

Player Prop #3: David N’Guessan / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -115 / 58% / N’Guessan’s 6.8 rebound average drops to 5.9 on the road against elite rebounding teams like Arizona (top-10 ORB%); foul trouble and Arizona’s havoc rate limit second-chance plays.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arizona | 92.0% |
| Win % for Kansas State | 8.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Arizona | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 152.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.0, 40.0] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Arizona, aligning with money distribution and sharp action, making a follow-the-public approach optimal as metrics confirm no overvaluation of the favorite. Kansas State’s underdog status lacks contrarian value, with injuries minimal but road struggles evident. Overall game scoring leans slightly high due to Arizona’s offensive efficiency (115+ AdjO) overpowering Kansas State’s middling defense (102 AdjD), though tempo control could cap the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Arizona] — Simulations and market data point to a clear edge for the home favorite in a lopsided matchup.

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