Arkansas State vs Troy

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:46 AM EST

Arkansas State vs Troy on 2026-01-07

Game Times
ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Arkansas State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Arkansas State shows strong home form with recent wins, covering in 55% of simulations against Troy’s weaker road efficiency]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 145.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams exhibit defensive rebounding strengths and lower tempo in recent matchups, favoring a controlled pace below the line]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Arkansas State / Moneyline / -160 / 62% / Simulation edges favor Arkansas State at home, leveraging superior adjusted efficiency and turnover margin]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas State | 62% |
| Win % for Troy | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Arkansas State | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 19] |

💸 Public Bets
[60% / 40%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -3.5, minor shift toward underdog despite public lean on favorite]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Arkansas State spread, supported by simulation cover rate and home advantage metrics]

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the favorite, making a follow strategy optimal given the consensus EV edge. Arkansas State’s recent form and defensive efficiency suggest a moderate-scoring affair under the total. Overall, the matchup favors the home side without strong contrarian signals.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Arkansas State] — whichever has the best mathematical probability of winning.

Highlights unavailable.