Arkansas vs Missouri

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Arkansas +3.5 at -110 58% Missouri line moved from -2.5 despite potential public on home dog, but simulations show tight margin with home advantage.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 55.5 at -112 62% 77% public tickets on over but 61% money on under drove total down from 58; avg sim total 52.5 aligns with defensive adjustments late season.

💰 Best Bet #3 Missouri -162 59% Superior recent form (wins over Kansas, blowouts) vs Arkansas 2-9 struggles, positive EV on road fave.

🏈 Arkansas vs Missouri on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Arkansas 62% / Missouri 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Missouri 58% / Arkansas 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Missouri -2.5, moved to -3.5 toward favorite on BetSaracen; total 58 to 55 on sharp under money despite public over tickets.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Missouri spread & under; RLM supports pros on Missouri/under vs public fade potential.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas | 41.0% |
| Win % for Missouri | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Arkansas +3.5 | 52.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri -3.5 | 48.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 55.5: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 52.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Missouri) | [-24.2, 31.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Ahmad Hardy (Missouri) Over 85.5 Rush Yards -115 72% Missouri #3 rush offense (292 YPG), Hardy leads with high usage vs Arkansas poor run D (recent allowed 150+).

Player Prop #2: Taylen Green (Arkansas) Over 215.5 Pass Yards -110 68% Home QB starts, Arkansas air raid tempo favors volume (avg 250+ recent), Missouri secondary vulnerable to explosive plays.

Player Prop #3: Rodney Hill (Arkansas) Over 45.5 Rush Yards -112 70% Lead back in high-pace offense, Missouri front strong but Hill efficient (5+ YPC), home splits boost.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans home dog but money and line movement favor Missouri, indicating sharp action on road favorite; follow pros over public here. Game projects low-scoring late-season SEC tilt with both defenses tightening (Arkansas havoc rate up, Missouri explosive D). Overall under bias confirmed by sim and market steam.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Arkansas — Missouri holds mathematical edge in win prob and cover.

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