Auburn vs Alabama

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:59 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Alabama / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Alabama’s superior SP+ ratings and road form against recent opponents support covering, with line steady despite moderate public support.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 56% / Both teams’ defenses rank high in havoc rate and yards per play allowed this season, projecting low-scoring rivalry affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Alabama / Moneyline / -225 / 62% / Tide’s edge in turnover margin and explosive plays gives strong win probability.

🏈 Auburn vs Alabama on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 07:30 PM
CT: 06:30 PM
MT: 05:30 PM
PT: 04:30 PM
AKT: 03:30 PM
HST: 01:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Alabama 55% / Auburn 45%

💰 Money Distribution
Alabama 56% / Auburn 44%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Alabama -5.5, moved to -6 amid balanced action before settling at -5.5; minimal RLM with public and money on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Alabama spread; implied odds undervalue Tide’s FPI edge and Auburn’s home struggles against elites.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Auburn | 38% |
| Win % for Alabama | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Auburn +5.5 | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Alabama -5.5 | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over 46.5: 48% / Under 46.5: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 47.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cam Coleman / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 at -115 / 68% / Auburn WR leads team in targets and yards per catch vs Alabama’s secondary allowing explosive plays to WRs this season.
Player Prop #2: Ryan Williams / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 at -110 / 65% / Alabama WR high usage rate, averages 85+ yds recent games against similar defenses.
Player Prop #3: Kaleb Harris / Under Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -112 / 70% / Auburn RB faces Tide front top-20 in yards per carry allowed, low success rate matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Alabama, matching sharp consensus from line stability and projections. Following the favorite optimizes EV given Alabama’s better success rate and turnover differential in current season matchups. Game outlook leans under with both offenses tempered by strong defenses and rivalry intensity.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Alabama — data convergence supports the favorite’s edge.

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