NCAAB
Auburn vs 
Kentucky
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:30 PM ET • 7:30 PM CT • 6:30 PM MT • 5:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 11:43 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Kentucky Wildcats / +3.5 / -110 / 54% / Simulation shows Auburn cover rate at 48.6%, creating edge vs line; money slightly favors home but sim metrics support dog cover in close matchup.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 158.5 / -118 / 52% / Avg sim total 156.9 falls below line with over prob just 51.2%; both teams’ efficiency ratings suggest controlled pace and lower scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 Kentucky Wildcats / +145 / 45% / Auburn win prob 55.5% below implied 63.6% from ML; value on road dog with sharp money signals.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Auburn Tigers | 55.5% |
| Win % for Kentucky Wildcats | 42.3% |
| Spread Cover % for Auburn Tigers | 48.6% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.2% / Under: 48.8% |
| Average Total Points | 156.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-31.0, 36.0] |
🏀 Auburn Tigers vs Kentucky Wildcats
💸 Public Bets
[Auburn 53% / Kentucky 47%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Auburn 58% / Kentucky 42%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable; no significant shifts observed in provided data]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Kentucky +3.5; sim cover prob and money disparity indicate value despite public lean to favorite]
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets (53% Auburn) align with money (58% Auburn), but simulation metrics reveal no strong consensus edge, favoring a fade on the favorite spread with Kentucky’s cover probability at 51.4%. Contextual factors like stable lines and average total of 156.9 point to a lower-scoring affair under the 158.5 line. Overall game outlook leans toward defensive battle with limited scoring efficiency.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Kentucky +3.5 — sim and EV confirm highest probability despite public sentiment.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.