NCAAB
Austin Peay vs 
Central Arkansas
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 8:30 PM ET • 7:30 PM CT • 6:30 PM MT • 5:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-25 09:21 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Austin Peay / -3.5 / -112 / 58% / Austin Peay shows stronger recent scoring edge against Central Arkansas’ porous defense allowing 84 PPG lately, simulation projects 53% cover rate aligning with slight money steam.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 151.5 / -110 / 65% / Both teams trending low-scoring (Austin Peay ~66 PPG scored, Central Arkansas ~63 PPG), recent games average 142 total points, public/money leaning under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Austin Peay / Moneyline / -180 / 67% / Home win probability 65% from sim, supported by public (67%) and money (72%) consensus without heavy public overload.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Austin Peay Governors | 65% |
| Win % for Central Arkansas Bears | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Austin Peay | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 35% / Under: 65% |
| Average Total Points | 146 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 25] |
🏀 Matchup: Austin Peay Governors vs Central Arkansas Bears
💸 Public Bets
[52% / 48%]
💰 Money Distribution
[57% / 43%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -3.5, no reverse action despite mild public on home
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Austin Peay -3.5; sim probabilities exceed implied odds, recent form favors home by 8+ margin
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Dezi Kelly (Austin Peay) / Over 17.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Averages 19 PPG recently vs weak defenses like Central Arkansas (84 PPG allowed), high usage in home games.
Player Prop #2: Jordan Mason (Central Arkansas) / Under 14.5 Points / -112 / 68% / Struggling at 12 PPG last 3, faces Austin Peay allowing 71 PPG with solid perimeter D.
Player Prop #3: Ja’Monta Black (Austin Peay) / Over 6.5 Rebounds / -108 / 70% / Grabs 7.5 RPG lately, exploits Central Arkansas’ poor rebounding rate in losses.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money align on Austin Peay, matching simulation edges without sharp divergence or heavy public skew (>65% avoided fade). Central Arkansas’ defensive woes (84 PPG allowed recently) boost home cover and under outlook given low offensive outputs. Overall low-scoring game expected under total.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Austin Peay — sim and market consensus confirm value.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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