Ball State vs Le Moyne

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-30 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 10:54 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Le Moyne / +1.5 / -110 / 57% / Le Moyne shows stronger recent form at 2-0 in tournament vs Ball State’s 0-2 skid; sim cover rate favors dog amid line stability
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 146.5 / -110 / 58% / Sim avg total 145.2 trails line; both squads in low-output tournament games, defensive rebounding edges support subdued pace
💰 Best Bet #3 Le Moyne / Moneyline / -110 / 52% / Edge in win prob from Monte Carlo, tournament momentum, Ball State extended losing streak

Ball State vs Le Moyne on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Ball State 58% / Le Moyne 42%

💰 Money Distribution
Ball State 45% / Le Moyne 55%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Ball State -1.5; no major shifts despite public lean

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Le Moyne +1.5 — sim probs exceed implied odds, sharp money signals via X posts and money %

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ball State | 46.2% |
| Win % for Le Moyne | 52.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Ball State (-1.5) | 43.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Ball State (-1.5) | 57.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points | 145.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Ball State – Le Moyne) | [-19.8, 17.2] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment favors Ball State on the spread amid home listing and name recognition, but money distribution and simulation metrics diverge toward Le Moyne’s tournament success and Ball State’s skid. Fade the public here as RLM absent but EV confirms value on dog. Overall scoring outlook leans low with sim total below typical lines, driven by defensive efficiencies in recent play.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Le Moyne +1.5 — highest prob edge per convergence of sim, form, and market signals.

Highlights unavailable.