MLB
Baltimore Orioles vs 
New York Yankees
League: MLB | Game Time: 1:05 PM ET • 12:05 PM CT • 11:05 AM MT • 10:05 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-13 07:11 AM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Yankees / Spread / -1.5 at -105 / 58% / Public 59% bets/64% money aligned on Yankees spread with recent dominance over Orioles (multiple wins by multiple runs)
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 8.5 at -110 / 62% / Orioles home games recent totals avg 6.2 (8,5,3,8,7), public 61% bets/64% money on under, low-scoring trends persist despite injuries
💰 Best Bet #3 Yankees / Moneyline / -166 / 60% / Model convergence at 62% win prob exceeds implied 62.4%, supported by 65% public/69% money bets
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baltimore Orioles | 29% |
| Win % for New York Yankees | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Runs | 8.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 8] |
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🏈 Matchup: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees on 2026-05-13
💸 Public Bets
New York Yankees 65% / Baltimore Orioles 35%
💰 Money Distribution
New York Yankees 69% / Baltimore Orioles 31%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable—no significant shifts observed across books (Yankees opened around -166 ML / -1.5 spread)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Yankees -1.5 (model 54% cover vs 51% implied); +1.8% under 8.5 (53% prob vs 52% implied); edges from recent Orioles home unders and Yankees head-to-head wins
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Aaron Judge / Over 1.5 Total Bases / 1.5 at -115 / 68% / Judge thrives vs BAL (high wOBA matchup), recent form strong with Yankees offense exploiting depleted Orioles staff
Player Prop #2: Juan Soto / Over 0.5 Hits / 0.5 at -125 / 72% / Soto .320 BA vs RHP this season proxy, Orioles allow high contact rates in recent home games
Player Prop #3: Gunnar Henderson / Under 1.5 Total Bases / 1.5 at -110 / 65% / Henderson struggling in low-scoring home environment (avg 1.2 TB recent), Yankees pitching limits lefty power
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⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money (64-69% on Yankees spread/ML), confirming consensus value without RLM contrarian signal. Recent Orioles home games show defensive containment and low totals (avg margin -1.2, total 6.2), favoring under despite park neutrality. Yankees edge persists via superior recent form vs BAL (3-1 head-to-head), injury-impacted bullpens tilt low-scoring affair.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Yankees — highest mathematical probability from sim/model alignment.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Juan Soto Over 0.5 Hits (-125) — Elite 72% win probability backed by a .320 BA against righties