Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-27 08:20 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-27 07:50 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Baltimore Ravens / Spread / -7 at -110 / 60% / Ravens’ strong home defense and Henry’s rushing edge against Bengals’ depleted line provide cover value, aligned with sim and slight RLM.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 52.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ high-powered offenses average over 25 points recently, with injuries not fully hindering scoring pace in this matchup.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Baltimore Ravens / Moneyline / -325 / 70% / Dominant win probability from sim, supported by home advantage and Bengals’ injury woes.]

🏈 Matchup: Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals on 2025-11-27

Game Times

ET: 8:20 PM
CT: 7:20 PM
MT: 6:20 PM
PT: 5:20 PM
AKT: 4:20 PM
HST: 2:20 PM

💸 Public Bets
Ravens 72% / Bengals 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Ravens 60% / Bengals 40%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line moved from -7.5 to -7 toward Bengals despite heavy public action on Ravens, indicating some sharp resistance but overall stability.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on Ravens spread, driven by injury impacts and simulation cover rates exceeding implied odds probability.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baltimore Ravens | 72% |
| Win % for Cincinnati Bengals | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Baltimore Ravens | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 58% / Under: 42% |
| Average Total Points | 54.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+2, +12] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Derrick Henry / Over Rushing Yards / 110.5 / -110 / 70% / Henry’s 5.2 YPC average this season exploits Bengals’ run defense allowing 4.8 YPC to backs, with high usage in home games boosting likelihood.
Player Prop #2: Lamar Jackson / Over Passing Yards / 250.5 / -110 / 65% / Jackson’s 68% completion rate and 8.1 YPA face a Bengals secondary missing key DBs, projecting volume in pass-heavy script.
Player Prop #3: Ja’Marr Chase / Over Receiving Yards / 75.5 / -110 / 68% / Chase’s 95 targets in 8 games average 85 yards, thriving against Ravens’ man coverage with Burrow’s return elevating targets.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Ravens, aligning with money distribution and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Sharp resistance via line movement suggests caution on the spread but doesn’t erase the edge. Expect a high-scoring affair as both offenses rank top-10 in EPA/play, though Ravens’ defense could cap Bengals’ output.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Ravens — simulation and market consensus point to strong home win probability.

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