Baylor vs Houston

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 08:58 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Baylor -2.5 at -110 | 58% Confidence | Baylor holds home-field edge at McLane Stadium with strong recent scoring (48 and 42 points in wins), while Houston’s road defense has allowed 20+ in recent outings; line stable despite public lean.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 55.5 at -112 | 56% Confidence | Both teams show defensive improvements lately (Houston shutouts early, Baylor limited Auburn to 38 despite loss), combined averages suggest low-50s total amid Big 12 pace slowdown.

💰 Best Bet #3 Baylor -130 | 59% Confidence | Simulation and record mismatch undervalues Baylor’s home success (3-2 SU last 5 home); sharp money on home ML per recent trends.

Baylor vs Houston on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Baylor 65% / Houston 35%

💰 Money Distribution
Baylor 72% / Houston 28%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Baylor -3, moved to -2.5 amid 65% public on home side but sharp money pushing under on total; stable ML from -140 to -130.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Baylor spread | Public heavy on favorite but RLM favors home cover with Houston 1-4 ATS as road underdog this season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Baylor | 58% |
| Win % for Houston | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Baylor (-2.5) | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability (55.5) | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 54.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.5, +12.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Sawyer Robertson (Baylor QB) / Over 245.5 Passing Yards / -115 / 62% Confidence | Robertson averages 278 YPG last 3 starts (home splits higher at 295), Houston allows 265 pass YPG to QBs; explosive play rate favors over vs secondary weaknesses.

Player Prop #2: Conner Weigman (Houston QB) / Under 225.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 60% Confidence | Weigman 198 YPG road avg this season, Baylor havoc rate 18% disrupts tempo; recent games under in 4/5 vs top-50 defenses.

Player Prop #3: Mekhi Mews (Houston WR) / Over 62.5 Receiving Yards / -112 / 57% Confidence | Mews 78 YPG last 5 (targets up post-injury returns), Baylor CBs vulnerable to slot WRs (opponents 72 YPG); usage rate 25% projects over in pass-heavy script.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Baylor but money split shows sharp divergence on spread/total, justifying fade of heavy public side where EV aligns with home metrics. Houston’s better record (8-3) overvalued vs Baylor home form; low-scoring outlook from combined defensive success rates (Baylor 42%, Houston 45%) and weather-neutral venue.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Houston — Baylor’s simulation edge and home ATS (4-2 last 6) provide optimal probability.

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